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*Dungeons & Dragons
Lies, Darn Lies, and Statistics: Why DPR Isn't the Stat to Rule them All
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<blockquote data-quote="Snarf Zagyg" data-source="post: 9419797" data-attributes="member: 7023840"><p>Naw. I like to go galaxy-brained. I optimize for EXPLORATION! </p><p></p><p>My PC can outmap your PC blindfolded and with both hands tied behind his back.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Oh boy. It's time to whip it out.</p><p></p><p><em><u>Sure, it works great in practice, but how does it work in theory?</u></em></p><p></p><p>I'd like to understand why you made this comment, honestly. This is what I wrote in the conclusion-</p><p></p><p><em>That's both simple and complicated. The primary problem is that D&D, unlike most sports, doesn't have a large catalog of observed games for statistics. Now that we have twitch, and critical role, and other publicly broadcast games, maybe someone could start compiling that.... but that's neither here nor there. But there is always going to be a difference between "white room" stats and statistics in play. This may change with Beyond and the VTT, but we would need to see it in action.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>Other than that, the best way to get useful statistics is to run simulations (Monte Carlo simulations & regression analysis) over and over again with different party compositions and different combats and see the results. There would necessarily be limits to this based upon even more factors (what monsters, how are the PCs making decisions, accounting for spellcasting, accounting for terrain etc.) but it would provide you with more useful information. IMO.</em></p><p></p><p>Now, I think that the best way to understand how the various abilities work in terms of play, with different synergies between characters and in different situations and different party compositions should be obvious, at least to me.</p><p></p><p>By seeing how it actually works in play! If you have a dataset that is large enough, that would be ideal.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Absent that, running simulations (so .... many .... simulations) might be another useful approximation.</p><p></p><p>Again, the problem with D&D is that there are aspects of the game that are difficult to measure, even for combat, <em>a priori</em> (such as battlefield control, synergies with spells that buff others, different monsters and terrains and distances, and so on), but you can measure them <em>post hoc</em>. </p><p></p><p>Of course, I don't think we will ever get a very good statistical handle on the other pillars, but given I just started another thread recently about how D&D's rules channel activity toward combat, I'm not sure that's overly important to most people.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Snarf Zagyg, post: 9419797, member: 7023840"] Naw. I like to go galaxy-brained. I optimize for EXPLORATION! My PC can outmap your PC blindfolded and with both hands tied behind his back. Oh boy. It's time to whip it out. [I][U]Sure, it works great in practice, but how does it work in theory?[/U][/I] I'd like to understand why you made this comment, honestly. This is what I wrote in the conclusion- [I]That's both simple and complicated. The primary problem is that D&D, unlike most sports, doesn't have a large catalog of observed games for statistics. Now that we have twitch, and critical role, and other publicly broadcast games, maybe someone could start compiling that.... but that's neither here nor there. But there is always going to be a difference between "white room" stats and statistics in play. This may change with Beyond and the VTT, but we would need to see it in action. Other than that, the best way to get useful statistics is to run simulations (Monte Carlo simulations & regression analysis) over and over again with different party compositions and different combats and see the results. There would necessarily be limits to this based upon even more factors (what monsters, how are the PCs making decisions, accounting for spellcasting, accounting for terrain etc.) but it would provide you with more useful information. IMO.[/I] Now, I think that the best way to understand how the various abilities work in terms of play, with different synergies between characters and in different situations and different party compositions should be obvious, at least to me. By seeing how it actually works in play! If you have a dataset that is large enough, that would be ideal. Absent that, running simulations (so .... many .... simulations) might be another useful approximation. Again, the problem with D&D is that there are aspects of the game that are difficult to measure, even for combat, [I]a priori[/I] (such as battlefield control, synergies with spells that buff others, different monsters and terrains and distances, and so on), but you can measure them [I]post hoc[/I]. Of course, I don't think we will ever get a very good statistical handle on the other pillars, but given I just started another thread recently about how D&D's rules channel activity toward combat, I'm not sure that's overly important to most people. [/QUOTE]
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Lies, Darn Lies, and Statistics: Why DPR Isn't the Stat to Rule them All
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