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Message: <blockquote data-quote="FrogReaver" data-source="post: 9419896" data-attributes="member: 6795602">Not alot of time but I wanted to get the concept out quickly. I can elaborate more later. For now, see below.Even if we did. At most we could say, in critical role campaign X with these other players and characters making these decisions this character output this damage.  As you have already suggested, there’s no reason to assume that remains the same with in other critical role campaigns, or when not done by critical role or when the players or characters or decisions change.In sports that mostly works because teams are usually similar year to year and all play by exactly the same rules, etc, but when there’s a big shakeup everyone wonders how things will pan out.Well no, for Monte Carlo sims to work you have to weight the scenarios you are running correctly. There’s no feasible way to do that. Its a similar problem with white room, except white room spells out its specific set of assumptions. And even if we could there’s also the problem of who gets assigned the damage due to a buff or debuff.IMO. All the additional assumptions needed to make a team based Monte Carlo sim give you good information is what makes it garbage in comparison.  It’s the very reason white room doesn’t assume party composition or other players character decisions. It’s not because they cannot include those assumptions if they desire, but because trying to make those assumptions generally obscures more than they reveal.Even a large enough dataset isn’t forecastable because it’s not like baseball where we have mostly the same teams facing mostly the same opposition all playing by exactly the same set of rules.I’m not saying DPR is best metric ever, but it’s just that all the alternatives stink even more. D&D isn’t like baseball for a variety of reasons and those differences make predicting contributions really hard - unless we limit ourselves to a specific set of assumptions and a single character - and while not perfect it’s easy enough to recalculate on the fly for other assumptions as needed.</blockquote>

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