Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Blue" data-source="post: 7621431" data-attributes="member: 20564">However, the obvious is a trap that will lead you astray.We're not optimizing for number of times it comes into play.&nbsp; We're optimizing for the change it makes.&nbsp; The amout the boolean succeed/fail changes.For example, if we hit on a 2+, our chance to miss diminishes twentyfold with lucky, since we go from 1/20 chance (a 1) to a 1/400 chance (a 1 then a 1).&nbsp; Getting four attacks instead of two won't make that kind of difference.Same for advantage - advantage gives twice as many chances to roll, sure.&nbsp; But it also gives halves the number of times it matters.&nbsp; Say you have advantage and reroll 1.&nbsp; The other, because we're not rerolling, is from 2 to 19, which is an average of exactly 11.&nbsp; So that reroll won't increase the advantage roll 55% of the time - any reroll from 1 to 11.&nbsp; So twice as many times to trigger but only half the effect make Advantage NOT a big winner for in making lucky more effect, just in making it trigger more often which not the goal itself.If you need more average numbers, like 60% chance to succeed, that's the places more attacks help.&nbsp; You go from a 40% chance of failure to a 35% + (5% * 40%) = 37% chance of failure.&nbsp; Yes, that 3% will make a difference over a large number of attacks, but it's not a dramatic chance.&nbsp; Say in 33 attacks the PC with lucky will have 1 more hit then the PC without it.&nbsp; Sure, reaching 33 swings sooner is nice, and any weapon wielder is happy with more attacks, but it's such a small change that Lucky isn't making a big difference over another character with the same number of attacks but without the Halfling's Lucky.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Blue, post: 7621431, member: 20564"] However, the obvious is a trap that will lead you astray. We're not optimizing for number of times it comes into play. We're optimizing for the change it makes. The amout the boolean succeed/fail changes. For example, if we hit on a 2+, our chance to miss diminishes twentyfold with lucky, since we go from 1/20 chance (a 1) to a 1/400 chance (a 1 then a 1). Getting four attacks instead of two won't make that kind of difference. Same for advantage - advantage gives twice as many chances to roll, sure. But it also gives halves the number of times it matters. Say you have advantage and reroll 1. The other, because we're not rerolling, is from 2 to 19, which is an average of exactly 11. So that reroll won't increase the advantage roll 55% of the time - any reroll from 1 to 11. So twice as many times to trigger but only half the effect make Advantage NOT a big winner for in making lucky more effect, just in making it trigger more often which not the goal itself. If you need more average numbers, like 60% chance to succeed, that's the places more attacks help. You go from a 40% chance of failure to a 35% + (5% * 40%) = 37% chance of failure. Yes, that 3% will make a difference over a large number of attacks, but it's not a dramatic chance. Say in 33 attacks the PC with lucky will have 1 more hit then the PC without it. Sure, reaching 33 swings sooner is nice, and any weapon wielder is happy with more attacks, but it's such a small change that Lucky isn't making a big difference over another character with the same number of attacks but without the Halfling's Lucky. [/QUOTE]

Verification