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Message: <blockquote data-quote="LightPhoenix" data-source="post: 4127641" data-attributes="member: 115">My theory is somewhat along those lines.In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not currently winning my bracket.In general, where knowledge comes into play is in predicting the closer seeds.  For example, Texas A&M was a call I made easily - they're a good team that got underranked and had a fairly difficult schedule.  Davidson made a lot of noise, and so I picked them not just because they were good, but because they had morale and momentum.  I didn't pick Duke going into the Final Four (but did have them in the eight), but I did have Georgetown there.Where luck comes in is the Cinderella wins.  Not many people would put Davidson over Georgetown (I sure didn't), that's a - to continue your parlance - bonehead pick.  Yet Georgetown lost.  You might be able to predict some (Duke, esp. vs. West Virginia) but overall these statistically don't happen often.  When they do, no discredit to the winning teams, but these are often flukes.  More often than not, these are due to the higher-ranked teams playing a bad game, more than the lower-ranked ones playing a good game (though that certainly helps).A prime example of this is earlier in the season, Syracuse beating Georgetown.  That should not have happened, and the reason it did wasn't SU playing a good game, is was Georgetown playing a bad one.</blockquote>