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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Brennin Magalus" data-source="post: 2002487" data-attributes="member: 13103"><p>The probability that the character with the +10 bonus wins is .7. This is easy to see if you start to write out all the possible outcomes in this (discrete) probability space. If you write the numbers 6 to 25 on the top of your paper and 11 to 30 on the left hand side you will see that there are 5 successes (for the character with the +10 bonus, assuming a tie is a failure) in the first row, 6 successes in the 2nd, 7 in the 3rd and so on until you reach the 16th row has 20 successes which is also the case for the subsequent rows (up to row 20, which is the last row). Adding the successes and dividing by 400 (the total number of outcomes, each of which are equally likely) you get .7.</p></blockquote><p></p>