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Message: <blockquote data-quote="UngeheuerLich" data-source="post: 5155516" data-attributes="member: 59057">no, you are misreading it:the average means nothing, if the varance is too big or if there are other factors to be counted on.You should read it up yourself... I don´t know what you learned at college or university, but surely not statistics.The average means nothing if there are other factors in a small sample:I make an extreme example (because you obviously didn´t understand the other one):Just compare 2 players:Mr. reliable:His average damage is 0,95, because you know, you do exactly 1 point of damage, and you hit from 2 to 20.ANDMr. crit fisher:His average damage is 50, because he does exactly 1000 damage on a crit. But he only hits at 20.Now, lets assume both fight against a minion with 1 hp.Now, can you tell me why average damage doesn´t tell you anything at all in this example?Lets make it a littl bit more complex:Lets assume the monster has 15hp, still Mr. reliable will still end most fights faster than Mr. crit fisher.But if you fight against monsters that also do damage to you, a fight that ends at round 1 will save you a lot of trouble, but the fight where you don´t crit for 100 throws will kill you.So maybe a team of Mr. reliable and Mr crit fisher will work best most of the time.If Mr. Crit fisher fights against Mr. Reliable (both 15 hp) it gets even more complicated:Mr. crit fisher will die at exactly round 15. Mr Reliable will be killed on round 20 on average (EV is 1/p, if you didn´t know --> Geometrische Verteilung)Mr Crit fisher will lose more fight, but he has the option to flee at round 10 if it doesn´t work out well for him, he can second wind, be healed etc, which will make him win or achieve a draw all the time. Mr. reliable is dead at first contact.When you factor in vulnerabilities Mr. reliable may get an edge: (with vulnerability 15 he will win nearly all fights), when you have resistance 1, he will always lose.You know what is the most important thing to know about probabilities? To know when it is ok to use them and when not.</blockquote>

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