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Maybe D&D Should Branch?
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<blockquote data-quote="pemerton" data-source="post: 6016947" data-attributes="member: 42582"><p>Maybe. I'm not sure, though - I mean, it didn't work for WotC, did it! (4e was hardly put together by unknown hacks.)</p><p></p><p>If WotC is still serious about trying to leverage D&D into a $50 million per annum "core brand", what can we infer from that?</p><p></p><p>Let's say that they're currently at $30 million per annum. (And let's assume we're talking sales here, rather than profits.) Anything less than that and I would have though it's madness to assume you can make the core brand target (though I'm not in business, so what would I know?).</p><p></p><p>Is half of that novels? More? I'm going to knock off the novels and say I've got $15 million left to make up in sales.</p><p></p><p>The board games have been very successful, it seems. Plus there's probably other D&D-branded stuff I'm not thinking of. I'm going to call all that $5 million.</p><p></p><p>That leaves me with RPG sales of around $10 million per year. Does that seem right? Too high? Too low?</p><p></p><p>Now we know that PF is nipping at the heels of that figure, or has even overtaken it (depending on data set, period, inclusion or exclusion of subscription sales, etc). While Monte Cook's half-million is pretty impressive!, my rough-and-ready maths puts Paizo at 20 times that size. I don't think they were going to do that with Runegoose, or 4e, or 13th Age, or Burning Wheel. I think it was D&D that took them there.</p><p></p><p>That is an interesting hypothesis. And an interesting scenario. I think the bigger threat might be "Pathfinder 2nd ed", if they ever have to do it - is D&Dnext really going to pull people away from PF when 4e couldn't hook hem in the first place? (Also, what will the clone of Pathfinder 1st ed be called if/when PF2 comes?)</p><p></p><p>You're in Chicago, right? In my case, Melbourne Australia. Though I have been to Chicago a couple of times. A very striking skyline!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="pemerton, post: 6016947, member: 42582"] Maybe. I'm not sure, though - I mean, it didn't work for WotC, did it! (4e was hardly put together by unknown hacks.) If WotC is still serious about trying to leverage D&D into a $50 million per annum "core brand", what can we infer from that? Let's say that they're currently at $30 million per annum. (And let's assume we're talking sales here, rather than profits.) Anything less than that and I would have though it's madness to assume you can make the core brand target (though I'm not in business, so what would I know?). Is half of that novels? More? I'm going to knock off the novels and say I've got $15 million left to make up in sales. The board games have been very successful, it seems. Plus there's probably other D&D-branded stuff I'm not thinking of. I'm going to call all that $5 million. That leaves me with RPG sales of around $10 million per year. Does that seem right? Too high? Too low? Now we know that PF is nipping at the heels of that figure, or has even overtaken it (depending on data set, period, inclusion or exclusion of subscription sales, etc). While Monte Cook's half-million is pretty impressive!, my rough-and-ready maths puts Paizo at 20 times that size. I don't think they were going to do that with Runegoose, or 4e, or 13th Age, or Burning Wheel. I think it was D&D that took them there. That is an interesting hypothesis. And an interesting scenario. I think the bigger threat might be "Pathfinder 2nd ed", if they ever have to do it - is D&Dnext really going to pull people away from PF when 4e couldn't hook hem in the first place? (Also, what will the clone of Pathfinder 1st ed be called if/when PF2 comes?) You're in Chicago, right? In my case, Melbourne Australia. Though I have been to Chicago a couple of times. A very striking skyline! [/QUOTE]
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