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Mike Mearls: "D&D Is Uncool Again"
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<blockquote data-quote="Steampunkette" data-source="post: 9575057" data-attributes="member: 6796468"><p>So... here's my take. Grab your grain of salt:</p><p></p><p>The "Critical Role Bubble" hasn't burst. Neither has the COVID bubble. People who were introduced to D&D in 2019 and 2020 are still playing the game in massive quantities. Some are doing their own homebrew worlds at their own tables, some are playing with what Mercer has put out. And some are also branching out to other games and systems. (Pathfinder 2e, particularly)</p><p></p><p>Some have stopped playing, of course. That always happens. Whether through lack of interest or being in a place in their life where they simply can't game. But for the most part? They're still here.</p><p></p><p>And I say this with some confidence because Roll20 exists and releases user totals. Specifically: Active Users.</p><p></p><p>Prior to Q4 2020 they had less than 8 million users. Hitting 8 million was a big milestone. And they achieved it, largely, through the CritRole/Covid surge. By April of 2020, 300 million Americans were in lockdown and starting to go stir crazy within a couple months. Online D&D was an easy way to reach out using Zoom or Discord calls and Roll20 for a map.</p><p></p><p>So you'd think the userbase would dip a bit after the lockdown ended. Well... It didn't.</p><p></p><p>In Q4 2021 they had 10 million active users. In Q4 2024 they had 15 million active users. The growth of the userbase has certainly slowed down a bit since 2020, but the population isn't dropping.</p><p></p><p>I would provide the values for the Foundry VTT, if I could... but they don't publicly release them. I can tell you they had a 52% population growth, year over year, between 2021 and 2022. And a 32% increase on unique licenses from 2023 to 2024. Indicating there's been slowdown in their market growth as they approach saturation.</p><p></p><p>Now how many of those Foundry users continue to use the Foundry, year over year? No way to know.</p><p></p><p>One thing is certain between both Roll20 and Foundry, though: D&D remains the gorilla in the boxing ring.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]395190[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>It might not be as publicly talked about as it was in 2020/2021, and forum activity might fluctuate... But it's still out there, being played, in massive numbers.</p><p></p><p>Now, your FLGS is probably going to continue to see a downturn in people present in the store. Some conventions might move to smaller facilities based on how many people are willing, and able to afford, the trip. But D&D isn't dying, any time soon.</p><p></p><p>In one month, the D&D24 PHB sold more copies than the 2014 PHB did before 2016. They printed out three times as many copies for launch day as the 2014 PHB and still wound up ordering a second printing as they ran out.</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.polygon.com/dnd-dungeons-dragons/469141/players-handbook-sold-out[/URL]</p><p></p><p>Mind you: Most FLGS that were contacted reported still having copies on the shelves except for two stores in Florida when this article was posted. This indicates that the majority of sales of the D&D24 PHB were sold online through retailers like Amazon, rather than conventional in-store purchases. Which is representative of a general cultural change we've seen in how people buy things that aren't groceries.</p><p></p><p>The Medium is changing. But the game is still being played.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Steampunkette, post: 9575057, member: 6796468"] So... here's my take. Grab your grain of salt: The "Critical Role Bubble" hasn't burst. Neither has the COVID bubble. People who were introduced to D&D in 2019 and 2020 are still playing the game in massive quantities. Some are doing their own homebrew worlds at their own tables, some are playing with what Mercer has put out. And some are also branching out to other games and systems. (Pathfinder 2e, particularly) Some have stopped playing, of course. That always happens. Whether through lack of interest or being in a place in their life where they simply can't game. But for the most part? They're still here. And I say this with some confidence because Roll20 exists and releases user totals. Specifically: Active Users. Prior to Q4 2020 they had less than 8 million users. Hitting 8 million was a big milestone. And they achieved it, largely, through the CritRole/Covid surge. By April of 2020, 300 million Americans were in lockdown and starting to go stir crazy within a couple months. Online D&D was an easy way to reach out using Zoom or Discord calls and Roll20 for a map. So you'd think the userbase would dip a bit after the lockdown ended. Well... It didn't. In Q4 2021 they had 10 million active users. In Q4 2024 they had 15 million active users. The growth of the userbase has certainly slowed down a bit since 2020, but the population isn't dropping. I would provide the values for the Foundry VTT, if I could... but they don't publicly release them. I can tell you they had a 52% population growth, year over year, between 2021 and 2022. And a 32% increase on unique licenses from 2023 to 2024. Indicating there's been slowdown in their market growth as they approach saturation. Now how many of those Foundry users continue to use the Foundry, year over year? No way to know. One thing is certain between both Roll20 and Foundry, though: D&D remains the gorilla in the boxing ring. [ATTACH type="full" size="1303x803"]395190[/ATTACH] It might not be as publicly talked about as it was in 2020/2021, and forum activity might fluctuate... But it's still out there, being played, in massive numbers. Now, your FLGS is probably going to continue to see a downturn in people present in the store. Some conventions might move to smaller facilities based on how many people are willing, and able to afford, the trip. But D&D isn't dying, any time soon. In one month, the D&D24 PHB sold more copies than the 2014 PHB did before 2016. They printed out three times as many copies for launch day as the 2014 PHB and still wound up ordering a second printing as they ran out. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.polygon.com/dnd-dungeons-dragons/469141/players-handbook-sold-out[/URL] Mind you: Most FLGS that were contacted reported still having copies on the shelves except for two stores in Florida when this article was posted. This indicates that the majority of sales of the D&D24 PHB were sold online through retailers like Amazon, rather than conventional in-store purchases. Which is representative of a general cultural change we've seen in how people buy things that aren't groceries. The Medium is changing. But the game is still being played. [/QUOTE]
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