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General Tabletop Discussion
*Dungeons & Dragons
Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="Guest 6801328" data-source="post: 7000857"><p>First, I believe more routine tasks should be handwaved by the DM with no roll required. Totally with you there.</p><p></p><p>Second, I think that despite stating and restating this, the point is still being missed: I am talking exclusively about skill tests in which it's not possible to know an answer with certainty. I am talking about things that involve judgment and intuition, not hard skills. So, no, tool usage would not ever be subject to this system.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The use of the word "information" is misleading here. We are talking about hunches and guesses. Is the guard lying? Which passage should I take? Do I cut the blue wire or the red wire?</p><p></p><p>Now, any one of these *might* be known with certainty as a 1 in a 1,000 thing. But let's make it 1 in 20: if you roll a natural 20, you succeed 100%: it turns out the person the guard is claiming to have been in a raw turtle egg eating contest with at the time of the heist is your cousin, and you know for a fact that she is allergic to turtle eggs, so he's lying.</p><p></p><p>But in general those sorts of things are not known with certainty, they are guessed at, based on clues or intuition or whatever.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Either I explained it poorly or you misread it, but that's the opposite of the case. The bigger the margin with which you beat the DC the lower the chance that your success gets turned into a secret failure. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>You're misunderstanding either the rules or the math. I don't know in what way, so I can't clarify.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The "um, yeah, it does" smells suspiciously like snark. If you felt I've been snarky to you and are reciprocating then I apologize; that was not my intent.</p><p></p><p>In any event, my system does not require plausible false evidence. It's all in the dice. That's its strength. Again, I think you are misunderstanding how it works but I don't know in what way.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Guest 6801328, post: 7000857"] First, I believe more routine tasks should be handwaved by the DM with no roll required. Totally with you there. Second, I think that despite stating and restating this, the point is still being missed: I am talking exclusively about skill tests in which it's not possible to know an answer with certainty. I am talking about things that involve judgment and intuition, not hard skills. So, no, tool usage would not ever be subject to this system. The use of the word "information" is misleading here. We are talking about hunches and guesses. Is the guard lying? Which passage should I take? Do I cut the blue wire or the red wire? Now, any one of these *might* be known with certainty as a 1 in a 1,000 thing. But let's make it 1 in 20: if you roll a natural 20, you succeed 100%: it turns out the person the guard is claiming to have been in a raw turtle egg eating contest with at the time of the heist is your cousin, and you know for a fact that she is allergic to turtle eggs, so he's lying. But in general those sorts of things are not known with certainty, they are guessed at, based on clues or intuition or whatever. Either I explained it poorly or you misread it, but that's the opposite of the case. The bigger the margin with which you beat the DC the lower the chance that your success gets turned into a secret failure. You're misunderstanding either the rules or the math. I don't know in what way, so I can't clarify. The "um, yeah, it does" smells suspiciously like snark. If you felt I've been snarky to you and are reciprocating then I apologize; that was not my intent. In any event, my system does not require plausible false evidence. It's all in the dice. That's its strength. Again, I think you are misunderstanding how it works but I don't know in what way. [/QUOTE]
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