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Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="Saeviomagy" data-source="post: 7000908" data-attributes="member: 5890"><p>I create a trap/bomb/rope etc. Will it work the first time I use it?</p><p></p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizards_Project" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizards_Project</a></p><p></p><p>Blue wire/red wire is a certainty: the pre-work to arriving at the decision is an investigation of the device, and once you've done it, either you fail at the electrical engineering check (and have to guess OR get it wrong) or you succeed and you know for a fact that it's the red wire. You will still probably have a tense moment when you cut the wire, simply because the stakes are so high.</p><p></p><p>Similarly: left tunnel right tunnel might be something inscrutible: in which case don't allow a check! Or there might be some reasonable way to work it out (like using a map) at which point a roll might be used. What you shouldn't do here is give someone a roll and then when they succeed change the result to a worse-than-failure.</p><p></p><p>Success chance of 50%(ie 11-20)</p><p>25% chance of 1d4(on 11-15)</p><p>25% chance of 1d6(on 16-20)</p><p></p><p>VS</p><p></p><p>Success chance of 75%(ie 6-20)</p><p>25% chance of 1d4 (6-10)</p><p>25% chance of 1d6 (11-15)</p><p>25% chance of 1d10 (16-20)</p><p></p><p>I don't even need to run the numbers: the guy with a 75% chance to succeed at the roll has to roll the same secondary dice as the guy with the 50% chance PLUS a further 25% chance that he has to roll a 1d10. He's MORE likely to end up with false information simply because he's MORE likely to succeed at the roll. His skill is reducing the chance that he gets no information, and a portion of that chance is going to getting a completely wrong result.</p><p></p><p>I'm reading the math you put forward. I think you've not actually worked out the probability of the various situations.</p><p></p><p>Sorry, but you seem to be denying a fundamental requirement of your method. Imagine me saying it in a tone of confusion. I am genuinely confused as to how you think that a DM who is giving out a false result for a skill check will not have to think of a plausible false result.</p><p></p><p>So in the trivial example "is the guard lying?" you have to say no when the answer is yes. Trivial though that is, it's still plausible false information. If the question were more complex, you've got to come up with something to say that is suitably more complex.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Saeviomagy, post: 7000908, member: 5890"] I create a trap/bomb/rope etc. Will it work the first time I use it? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizards_Project[/url] Blue wire/red wire is a certainty: the pre-work to arriving at the decision is an investigation of the device, and once you've done it, either you fail at the electrical engineering check (and have to guess OR get it wrong) or you succeed and you know for a fact that it's the red wire. You will still probably have a tense moment when you cut the wire, simply because the stakes are so high. Similarly: left tunnel right tunnel might be something inscrutible: in which case don't allow a check! Or there might be some reasonable way to work it out (like using a map) at which point a roll might be used. What you shouldn't do here is give someone a roll and then when they succeed change the result to a worse-than-failure. Success chance of 50%(ie 11-20) 25% chance of 1d4(on 11-15) 25% chance of 1d6(on 16-20) VS Success chance of 75%(ie 6-20) 25% chance of 1d4 (6-10) 25% chance of 1d6 (11-15) 25% chance of 1d10 (16-20) I don't even need to run the numbers: the guy with a 75% chance to succeed at the roll has to roll the same secondary dice as the guy with the 50% chance PLUS a further 25% chance that he has to roll a 1d10. He's MORE likely to end up with false information simply because he's MORE likely to succeed at the roll. His skill is reducing the chance that he gets no information, and a portion of that chance is going to getting a completely wrong result. I'm reading the math you put forward. I think you've not actually worked out the probability of the various situations. Sorry, but you seem to be denying a fundamental requirement of your method. Imagine me saying it in a tone of confusion. I am genuinely confused as to how you think that a DM who is giving out a false result for a skill check will not have to think of a plausible false result. So in the trivial example "is the guard lying?" you have to say no when the answer is yes. Trivial though that is, it's still plausible false information. If the question were more complex, you've got to come up with something to say that is suitably more complex. [/QUOTE]
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