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Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="Saeviomagy" data-source="post: 7004117" data-attributes="member: 5890"><p>My point was that engineering, especially the sort that would be modelled in D&D, is not 100% guaranteed success. Your argument about detecting a lie is that since it's not 100% guaranteed, it's nothing more than intuiting and hunches.</p><p></p><p>I'm an engineer, pedantry is what I do.</p><p></p><p>You specifically said that what you'd come up with was not built into any RPG.</p><p></p><p>Right. Could you detail those probabilities to me? I don't think you've actually worked them out.</p><p></p><p>Well, despite you saying that this thread is about finding out what people think, and discussing the system, you don't actually seem to be trying to address any of the problems with it, simply to discount the arguments against it.</p><p></p><p>The general population's ability to catch a lie lines up with a DC 10, ~0.25%-0.5% of the population has a +7 mod in it (Which is at least in the same ballpark as the odds of rolling an 18 for wisdom, with some reduction for choosing to increase that stat, plus pick a feat to boost it), and even the people best at it don't have 100% success (which also fits). Other skills have this thing where people who are great at it will still fail on tasks that literally anyone could succeed at.</p><p></p><p>Your own description was that you're telling the player he should pick the red wire because he had a dream filled with red? But that's still a skill check, and part of the reason you're inventing this rule?</p><p></p><p>You've continued on with some fairly heavy defense of it's flaws, including poopooing it's weird fortune reversal and making a claim that despite published studies to the contrary, detecting lies is an impossible skill that nobody can master.</p><p></p><p>If bombs were hand-made one-offs made by a skilled artisan, then you might have a point here. There are an awful lot of incidences of home-made explosive devices that fail to detonate or kill their creators. The bombs we go to war with come off an assembly line after an extensive engineering effort to pin down a reproducable, reliable design, with QA and all the rest of it and yet there's still plenty of examples throughout both world wars of them failing to work as advertised.</p><p></p><p>I'm not sure how a metaphor about slippery slopes applies here.</p><p></p><p>No, just fairly certain that I rolled higher than you.</p><p></p><p>Oh no! A guy on the internet arguing on a forum has accused me of being on a forum arguing with a guy on the internet!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Saeviomagy, post: 7004117, member: 5890"] My point was that engineering, especially the sort that would be modelled in D&D, is not 100% guaranteed success. Your argument about detecting a lie is that since it's not 100% guaranteed, it's nothing more than intuiting and hunches. I'm an engineer, pedantry is what I do. You specifically said that what you'd come up with was not built into any RPG. Right. Could you detail those probabilities to me? I don't think you've actually worked them out. Well, despite you saying that this thread is about finding out what people think, and discussing the system, you don't actually seem to be trying to address any of the problems with it, simply to discount the arguments against it. The general population's ability to catch a lie lines up with a DC 10, ~0.25%-0.5% of the population has a +7 mod in it (Which is at least in the same ballpark as the odds of rolling an 18 for wisdom, with some reduction for choosing to increase that stat, plus pick a feat to boost it), and even the people best at it don't have 100% success (which also fits). Other skills have this thing where people who are great at it will still fail on tasks that literally anyone could succeed at. Your own description was that you're telling the player he should pick the red wire because he had a dream filled with red? But that's still a skill check, and part of the reason you're inventing this rule? You've continued on with some fairly heavy defense of it's flaws, including poopooing it's weird fortune reversal and making a claim that despite published studies to the contrary, detecting lies is an impossible skill that nobody can master. If bombs were hand-made one-offs made by a skilled artisan, then you might have a point here. There are an awful lot of incidences of home-made explosive devices that fail to detonate or kill their creators. The bombs we go to war with come off an assembly line after an extensive engineering effort to pin down a reproducable, reliable design, with QA and all the rest of it and yet there's still plenty of examples throughout both world wars of them failing to work as advertised. I'm not sure how a metaphor about slippery slopes applies here. No, just fairly certain that I rolled higher than you. Oh no! A guy on the internet arguing on a forum has accused me of being on a forum arguing with a guy on the internet! [/QUOTE]
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