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Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="Guest 6801328" data-source="post: 7005117"><p>Ok, now I'm getting depressed. Either I'm doing a really bad job explaining what I see as the limitation....or I'm just crazy.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>But how does this work mechanically? Let's say the roll succeeds, and the DM says, "You think you succeeded." First, how does the DM choose between "you think you succeeded" and "you failed". There are basically three alternatives:</p><p></p><p>1) The DM says "you failed" when the roll fails. In this case saying "You think you succeeded" really means "you succeeded", so you may as well just say "You succeeded."</p><p></p><p>2) The DM always says "you think you succeeded" regardless of whether it is a success or a failure. In this case the player really has learned nothing useful by the attempt. Sure, maybe it has reduced the chance that he's going to die to a trap, but it hasn't actually changed his decision making. He's decided to open the chest, and finding/disarming the trap is simply something he does before opening chests, but it has zero impact on the suspense of the scene. <em>Because he has no idea if his odds have changed.</em></p><p></p><p>3) The DM <em>sometimes</em> says "you think you succeeded" on a failure. This seems the most interesting scenario, but then the question is: how does the DM choose? Maybe it's something specific, like any roll within 5 of either side of the DC gets the "you think" answer. In that case we are in fact using a new rule, although one that gives the player less information than what I'm proposing. (It's a 50:50 chance any time the DM says "You think.") Or maybe the DM just uses his own judgment and improvises, but in that case the player has <em>nothing</em> to base estimates on, so will act as if it's the same as 50:50, anyway. This is what I was referring to up-thread with "100%/50%/0%."</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I think maybe what we need (for anybody sufficiently interested) is to step through a specific example with specific numbers.</p><p></p><p>I'll start: I've got a character with +5 in Insight, and I'm talking to a guard, and I say to you, "I want to see if I can tell if he's lying."</p><p></p><p>What do you, the DM, do?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Guest 6801328, post: 7005117"] Ok, now I'm getting depressed. Either I'm doing a really bad job explaining what I see as the limitation....or I'm just crazy. But how does this work mechanically? Let's say the roll succeeds, and the DM says, "You think you succeeded." First, how does the DM choose between "you think you succeeded" and "you failed". There are basically three alternatives: 1) The DM says "you failed" when the roll fails. In this case saying "You think you succeeded" really means "you succeeded", so you may as well just say "You succeeded." 2) The DM always says "you think you succeeded" regardless of whether it is a success or a failure. In this case the player really has learned nothing useful by the attempt. Sure, maybe it has reduced the chance that he's going to die to a trap, but it hasn't actually changed his decision making. He's decided to open the chest, and finding/disarming the trap is simply something he does before opening chests, but it has zero impact on the suspense of the scene. [I]Because he has no idea if his odds have changed.[/I] 3) The DM [I]sometimes[/I] says "you think you succeeded" on a failure. This seems the most interesting scenario, but then the question is: how does the DM choose? Maybe it's something specific, like any roll within 5 of either side of the DC gets the "you think" answer. In that case we are in fact using a new rule, although one that gives the player less information than what I'm proposing. (It's a 50:50 chance any time the DM says "You think.") Or maybe the DM just uses his own judgment and improvises, but in that case the player has [I]nothing[/I] to base estimates on, so will act as if it's the same as 50:50, anyway. This is what I was referring to up-thread with "100%/50%/0%." I think maybe what we need (for anybody sufficiently interested) is to step through a specific example with specific numbers. I'll start: I've got a character with +5 in Insight, and I'm talking to a guard, and I say to you, "I want to see if I can tell if he's lying." What do you, the DM, do? [/QUOTE]
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