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Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="ClearlyTough69" data-source="post: 7006839" data-attributes="member: 6864123"><p>I really liked the idea behind your post and it got me thinking...</p><p></p><p>I don't know if this is either simpler or more elegant, but it might spur more ideas.</p><p>__________________________</p><p><strong>Assessment and confidence</strong></p><p></p><p>When you attempt to affect the world around you, you might not know immediately how successful your attempt was. The DM will use this mechanic to determine your own assessment of your success, and how much confidence you have in your assessment. The mechanic uses the term <strong>degree of success/ failure</strong>. This is the <em>difference </em>between your check result and the DC or the contesting check result; it measures how well you succeeded or how badly you failed in the check, and it can't be negative.</p><p></p><p><strong>Your assessment of your attempt</strong></p><p>The DM will determine your assessment score as follows:</p><p> • If you succeeded on the original skill check, your assessment score is d20 + your degree of success.</p><p> • If you failed, your assessment score is d20 - your degree of success.</p><p></p><p>If your assessment score is at least 10, you have made a correct assessment of your attempt; otherwise you get it wrong.</p><p></p><p>[Analysis: the greater the margin by which your check succeeds, the more likely you are to make an accurate assessment of how well you have done. Conversely, the greater the margin by which your check fails, the more likely you are to make an inaccurate assessment, and think you succeeded when in fact you failed.]</p><p></p><p><strong>Your confidence in your assessment</strong></p><p>The DM may also choose to tell you how confident your are in your assessment. He determines your confidence as follows:</p><p> • Your confidence score is d20 + your degree of success or failure (remember that if you failed, this is still a positive number)</p><p></p><p>The DM will compare your confidence score to the following table to determine how confident you are in your assessment.</p><p></p><p>Score Confidence</p><p><10 No confidence</p><p>10 Have a hunch </p><p>13 Fairly sure</p><p>16 Very sure </p><p>19 Absolutely certain </p><p></p><p>[Analysis: the greater your margin of success or failure, the more certain you will be of your assessment. If you succeeded well, you will certain that you succeeded; if you failed horribly, you are quite likely to think that you succeeded admirably. This has the pleasing side effect that players whose characters have low skill modifiers are less likely to jump on the bandwagon of saying, 'me too!' when their peers do not succeed (conclusively) on their skill checks]</p><p></p><p>Your DM will use these scores to tell you if you think you succeeded or failed, and how sure you are about this.</p><p></p><p>___________________________</p><p></p><p>I have also played around with applying <em>judgement </em>modifiers that allow characters with high Intelligence or Wisdom to be better able at judging their success and being more realistic in their confidence, but have kept this out for the time being.</p><p></p><p>In my next post, I'll work through your example of using Insight to determine whether someone is lying.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ClearlyTough69, post: 7006839, member: 6864123"] I really liked the idea behind your post and it got me thinking... I don't know if this is either simpler or more elegant, but it might spur more ideas. __________________________ [B]Assessment and confidence[/B] When you attempt to affect the world around you, you might not know immediately how successful your attempt was. The DM will use this mechanic to determine your own assessment of your success, and how much confidence you have in your assessment. The mechanic uses the term [B]degree of success/ failure[/B]. This is the [I]difference [/I]between your check result and the DC or the contesting check result; it measures how well you succeeded or how badly you failed in the check, and it can't be negative. [B]Your assessment of your attempt[/B] The DM will determine your assessment score as follows: • If you succeeded on the original skill check, your assessment score is d20 + your degree of success. • If you failed, your assessment score is d20 - your degree of success. If your assessment score is at least 10, you have made a correct assessment of your attempt; otherwise you get it wrong. [Analysis: the greater the margin by which your check succeeds, the more likely you are to make an accurate assessment of how well you have done. Conversely, the greater the margin by which your check fails, the more likely you are to make an inaccurate assessment, and think you succeeded when in fact you failed.] [B]Your confidence in your assessment[/B] The DM may also choose to tell you how confident your are in your assessment. He determines your confidence as follows: • Your confidence score is d20 + your degree of success or failure (remember that if you failed, this is still a positive number) The DM will compare your confidence score to the following table to determine how confident you are in your assessment. Score Confidence <10 No confidence 10 Have a hunch 13 Fairly sure 16 Very sure 19 Absolutely certain [Analysis: the greater your margin of success or failure, the more certain you will be of your assessment. If you succeeded well, you will certain that you succeeded; if you failed horribly, you are quite likely to think that you succeeded admirably. This has the pleasing side effect that players whose characters have low skill modifiers are less likely to jump on the bandwagon of saying, 'me too!' when their peers do not succeed (conclusively) on their skill checks] Your DM will use these scores to tell you if you think you succeeded or failed, and how sure you are about this. ___________________________ I have also played around with applying [I]judgement [/I]modifiers that allow characters with high Intelligence or Wisdom to be better able at judging their success and being more realistic in their confidence, but have kept this out for the time being. In my next post, I'll work through your example of using Insight to determine whether someone is lying. [/QUOTE]
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