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Modeling Uncertainty
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<blockquote data-quote="Harzel" data-source="post: 7007206" data-attributes="member: 6857506"><p>I like the general tenor of the idea, but the particulars seem to be able to lead to some conditions that I don't understand at the assessment stage. My areas of confusion are marked with '(?)'. (Possibly I have just misunderstood; if so, apologies in advance.)</p><p></p><p>Here's the same situation, but with different dice rolls:</p><p></p><p>The guard is indeed lying, so it's a contest between the character's Insight and the guard's Deception. </p><p></p><p>The character's check result is 15 (natural 10, +5 Insight); the guard's check result is 14 (natural 14, 0 Deception modifier). On the face of it, the character detects that the guard is lying; her degree of success is 1 (15-14).</p><p></p><p><em>Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failure</em></p><p>In this case = natural 4 +1 = 5.</p><p>This does not meet the threshold of 10, so the character makes an erroneous assessment of the outcome of the check: she (?) <em>believes </em>the guard is telling the truth even though she won the contest to 'detect' that he was lying (?).</p><p></p><p>_________________</p><p></p><p>Example of the PC losing the contest:</p><p></p><p>The character's check result is 12 (natural 7, +5 Insight); the guard's check result is 15 (natural 15, 0 Deception modifier). On the face of it, the character has failed the contest and does not detect that the guard is lying; her degree of failure is 3 (15-12).</p><p></p><p><em>Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failure</em></p><p>In this case = natural 14 -3 = 11.</p><p>This does meet the threshold of 10, so the character makes an correct assessment of the outcome of the check: she (?) <em>believes </em>the guard is lying even though she lost the contest to detect he was lying (?).</p><p></p><p>EDIT: Ok, after thinking about it a bit more, I think that the oddity is coming from the fact that the original task (lie detection) itself concerns belief. If the task were instead solving a puzzle, then things make more sense. One might</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Solve the puzzle and believe that the solution is correct; or</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Solve the puzzle and believe that the solution is incorrect (this case is still a little wonky); or</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Not solve the puzzle and believe that it is not solved (no solution); or</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Not solve the puzzle, but believe that you have solved it (incorrect solution).</li> </ol></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Harzel, post: 7007206, member: 6857506"] I like the general tenor of the idea, but the particulars seem to be able to lead to some conditions that I don't understand at the assessment stage. My areas of confusion are marked with '(?)'. (Possibly I have just misunderstood; if so, apologies in advance.) Here's the same situation, but with different dice rolls: The guard is indeed lying, so it's a contest between the character's Insight and the guard's Deception. The character's check result is 15 (natural 10, +5 Insight); the guard's check result is 14 (natural 14, 0 Deception modifier). On the face of it, the character detects that the guard is lying; her degree of success is 1 (15-14). [I]Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failure[/I] In this case = natural 4 +1 = 5. This does not meet the threshold of 10, so the character makes an erroneous assessment of the outcome of the check: she (?) [I]believes [/I]the guard is telling the truth even though she won the contest to 'detect' that he was lying (?). _________________ Example of the PC losing the contest: The character's check result is 12 (natural 7, +5 Insight); the guard's check result is 15 (natural 15, 0 Deception modifier). On the face of it, the character has failed the contest and does not detect that the guard is lying; her degree of failure is 3 (15-12). [I]Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failure[/I] In this case = natural 14 -3 = 11. This does meet the threshold of 10, so the character makes an correct assessment of the outcome of the check: she (?) [I]believes [/I]the guard is lying even though she lost the contest to detect he was lying (?). EDIT: Ok, after thinking about it a bit more, I think that the oddity is coming from the fact that the original task (lie detection) itself concerns belief. If the task were instead solving a puzzle, then things make more sense. One might [LIST=1] [*]Solve the puzzle and believe that the solution is correct; or [*]Solve the puzzle and believe that the solution is incorrect (this case is still a little wonky); or [*]Not solve the puzzle and believe that it is not solved (no solution); or [*]Not solve the puzzle, but believe that you have solved it (incorrect solution). [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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