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Message: <blockquote data-quote="ClearlyTough69" data-source="post: 7007428" data-attributes="member: 6864123">First, the diplomatic guard.The guard is telling the truth, so it's a contest between the character's Insight and the guard's trustworthiness, represented as a -5 Diplomacy check (the inverse of his Diplomacy modifier).The character's check result is 8 (natural 3, +5 Insight). As we've already established, the guard's check result is -5. On the face of it, the character detects that the guard is being truthful; her degree of success is 13 (8 - -5).Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failureIn this case = natural 4 +13 = 17.This meets the threshold of 10, so the character makes an accurate assessment of the outcome of the check: she believes the guard is being truthful.Confidence = d20 + degree of success/ failureIn this case = natural 12 +13 = 25.This exceeds the threshold for absolute certainty, so the DM reports that the character is absolutely certain that the diplomatic guard is being truthful.___________________Now, the undiplomatic guard, whom nature has gifted with a shifty demeanour.This guard is also telling the truth, but with a Charisma of 5, his trustworthiness can be represented as a +3 Diplomacy check (the inverse of his Diplomacy modifier).The character's check result is still 8 (natural 3, +5 Insight). As we've already established, the guard's check result is 3. On the face of it, the character detects that the guard is being truthful; her degree of success is 5 (8 - 3).Assessment = d20 + degree of success OR - degree of failureIn this case = natural 4 + 5 = 9.This does not meet the threshold of 10, so the character makes an erroneous assessment of the outcome of the check: she believes the guard is lying. She has mistaken his unfortunate demeanour as a sign of untrustworthiness.Confidence = d20 + degree of success/ failureIn this case = natural 12 + 5 = 17.This exceeds the threshold for being very sure, so the DM reports that the character is very sure that the undiplomatic guard is lying, when in fact he's being entirely truthful._____________________That seems about right to me. The character's low Insight roll and low assessment roll caused her to think that the shifty guard was lying, but she was mistaken; her comparatively high confidence roll caused her to be unduly confident in her assessment. Most of the time (ie with roughly average rolls) she would quite rightly be certain that the undiplomatic guard was telling the truth. The mechanic does require that all rolls be made and analysed together before a player can learn what his character's perceptions of the situation are.</blockquote>

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