2014 certainly seems to make more sense...as for retaining or gaining audience instead of splintering it more...that is going to be quite the trick.
It is indeed, and they've got their work cut out for them. Still, I don't think it's impossible. My observation of the edition wars has been that, as far as the actual game mechanics are concerned:
- 4E players don't like 3E/Pathfinder because it does not achieve certain goals (reducing cleric-dependence, balancing the classes, etc.).
- 3E/Pathfinder players don't like 4E because of the means the 4E designers chose (healing surges, AEDU universal power structure, etc.) to achieve those goals.
That's a simplification on both sides, of course, but I think it gets at the meat of the disagreement.
Observe that these are not diametrically opposed positions. 4E players want less cleric-dependence, balanced classes, and so forth. They are not necessarily attached to the specific means used to bring these things about. 3E players don't like healing surges and want distinctive class mechanics, but few object to the idea of less cleric-reliance and better class balance. So in theory, a 5E that chose different means to achieve those goals could be accepted by both sides.
(Of course, in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.)
There are also more philosophical concerns, having to do with style and emphasis rather than mechanics as such. This is the sort of thing Monte Cook is going on about in the recent Legends and Lore. My sense is that this matters more to the 3E/Pathfinder players and the old-schoolers than it does to 4E players; the typical 4E position has been "It's the mechanics that count." So I expect 5E to be more in the 3E mold, or even AD&D/BECMI, as far as style. Or maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.
Whether all that can overcome the ill-will engendered by the 3E/4E split, and the simple inertia of so many people having jumped ship for Pathfinder, remains to be seen. I dare say the way 5E is rolled out will matter almost as much as the game itself.
