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<blockquote data-quote="Esker" data-source="post: 8051244" data-attributes="member: 6966824">I'm not ready to concede that just yet. It might turn out that way, but what I said before that we should really do is roll it out a bunch of times (and not clog up this thread further with a fake play-by-post match). But you went ahead with it anyway.There's about a 16% chance 4 or 5 of my attacks hit on my first turn, in which case you go down in one turn regardless of damage rolls and deflect missiles roll. There's also about a 30% chance 3 of 5 attacks hit, and when that happens there's about a 27% chance you go down anyway, due to the particular combination of damage rolls and deflect missiles roll. So that's another 8% chance overall that you go down on my first turn. Overall 24% chance you go down on my first turn, and that's if you win initiative and have a chance to use agile parry before I go.So in order for you to get three turns before I've had two, you need to (a) go first (about a 75% chance), (b) survive my first turn (about a 76% chance), and (c) successfully stun me on your second turn (about a 57% chance). Individually, each of these is more likely than not, but combined it's only a 32% chance. That's the problem with assuming the most likely outcome --- do it often enough and you no longer have the most likely outcome.Even if all your attacks hit and you roll max damage on all of them, you don't down me in one turn. There's a chance you might do it in two without me getting a turn if (a) you win initiative, (b) you manage to stun me in the first turn, and (c) get lucky on your to-hit and damage rolls. We could try to work that out analytically, but it's pretty messy, so I think it's probably better left to just running the experiment with dice.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Esker, post: 8051244, member: 6966824"] I'm not ready to concede that just yet. It might turn out that way, but what I said before that we should really do is roll it out a bunch of times (and not clog up this thread further with a fake play-by-post match). But you went ahead with it anyway. There's about a 16% chance 4 or 5 of my attacks hit on my first turn, in which case you go down in one turn regardless of damage rolls and deflect missiles roll. There's also about a 30% chance 3 of 5 attacks hit, and when that happens there's about a 27% chance you go down anyway, due to the particular combination of damage rolls and deflect missiles roll. So that's another 8% chance overall that you go down on my first turn. Overall 24% chance you go down on my first turn, and that's [I]if[/I] you win initiative and have a chance to use agile parry before I go. So in order for you to get three turns before I've had two, you need to (a) go first (about a 75% chance), (b) survive my first turn (about a 76% chance), and (c) successfully stun me on your second turn (about a 57% chance). Individually, each of these is more likely than not, but combined it's only a 32% chance. That's the problem with assuming the most likely outcome --- do it often enough and you no longer have the most likely outcome. Even if all your attacks hit and you roll max damage on all of them, you don't down me in one turn. There's a chance you might do it in two without me getting a turn if (a) you win initiative, (b) you manage to stun me in the first turn, and (c) get lucky on your to-hit and damage rolls. We could try to work that out analytically, but it's pretty messy, so I think it's probably better left to just running the experiment with dice. [/QUOTE]

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