Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Truename" data-source="post: 4983430" data-attributes="member: 78255"><p><strong>The Monsters Strike Back</strong></p><p></p><p>As a few people have mentioned, if all we're doing is a glorified DPR calculation, there's not much point. The real question is, how does each encounter consume the PCs' valuable resources?</p><p></p><p>To start answering that question, I first added the ability for the monster to fight back. So far, I haven't added initiative rolls, so the creatures act simultaneously--both the monster and the PC get an attack every round even if one of them is killed. (In other words, I only check if someone died at the top of the round.)</p><p></p><p>Same characters as before, but I added some new stats to the sim:</p><p></p><p>PC AC: 17</p><p>PC HP: 27</p><p>Monster attack bonus: 3</p><p>Monster damage: 1d10 + 3</p><p></p><p>Results:</p><p>[code]</p><p>LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER (no feats, no powers)</p><p>Fights simulated: 1000000</p><p></p><p>Avg rounds: 5.1</p><p> 2 (2.3%): ======</p><p> 3 (19.9%): ==================================================</p><p> 4 (43.3%): ===================================================================</p><p> 5 (64.2%): ===========================================================</p><p> 6 (79.3%): ===========================================</p><p> 7 (88.8%): ===========================</p><p> 8 (94.3%): ===============</p><p> 9 (97.2%): ========</p><p> 10 (98.7%): ====</p><p> 11 (99.4%): ==</p><p></p><p>Avg HP remaining: 10.6 of 27</p><p>-12 (0.6%): ==</p><p>-11 (1.2%): ===</p><p>-10 (2.1%): ====</p><p> -9 (3.2%): =====</p><p> -8 (4.5%): ======</p><p> -7 (6.0%): =======</p><p> -6 (7.7%): ========</p><p> -5 (9.8%): ==========</p><p> -4 (12.1%): ===========</p><p> -3 (14.6%): =============</p><p> -2 (17.0%): ============</p><p> -1 (19.4%): ===========</p><p> 0 (21.6%): ===========</p><p> 1 (24.4%): =============</p><p> 2 (26.6%): ===========</p><p> 3 (29.0%): ============</p><p> 4 (31.5%): ============</p><p> 5 (34.1%): =============</p><p> 6 (36.7%): =============</p><p> 7 (39.3%): =============</p><p> 8 (42.0%): ==============</p><p> 9 (44.9%): ==============</p><p> 10 (47.9%): ===============</p><p> 11 (49.9%): ==========</p><p> 12 (51.7%): =========</p><p> 13 (53.2%): =======</p><p> 14 (61.2%): ========================================</p><p> 15 (64.7%): ==================</p><p> 16 (68.1%): ================</p><p> 17 (71.2%): ================</p><p> 18 (74.1%): ==============</p><p> 19 (76.9%): =============</p><p> 20 (79.4%): ============</p><p> 21 (81.9%): ============</p><p> 22 (84.4%): ============</p><p> 23 (86.9%): ============</p><p> 27(100.0%): ===================================================================</p><p>[/code]Under these circumstances, the PC dies 21.6% of the time, and takes no damage at all 13.1% of the time. The fights are over a little more quickly because if the PC can't mop up the monster in a decent amount of time, the monster mops up the PC. </p><p></p><p>There's an interesting spike at the 14hp mark--for some reason, taking exactly 13 damage is the most common damage, if you're damaged at all. I presume that's because it's critical damage--it's not that criticals are more common, but that critical damage is non-random, making it jump out of the noise more.</p><p></p><p>Similarly, I presume hp of 11-13 and 24-26 is uncommon because the monster always deals at least 4 damage.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Truename, post: 4983430, member: 78255"] [b]The Monsters Strike Back[/b] As a few people have mentioned, if all we're doing is a glorified DPR calculation, there's not much point. The real question is, how does each encounter consume the PCs' valuable resources? To start answering that question, I first added the ability for the monster to fight back. So far, I haven't added initiative rolls, so the creatures act simultaneously--both the monster and the PC get an attack every round even if one of them is killed. (In other words, I only check if someone died at the top of the round.) Same characters as before, but I added some new stats to the sim: PC AC: 17 PC HP: 27 Monster attack bonus: 3 Monster damage: 1d10 + 3 Results: [code] LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER (no feats, no powers) Fights simulated: 1000000 Avg rounds: 5.1 2 (2.3%): ====== 3 (19.9%): ================================================== 4 (43.3%): =================================================================== 5 (64.2%): =========================================================== 6 (79.3%): =========================================== 7 (88.8%): =========================== 8 (94.3%): =============== 9 (97.2%): ======== 10 (98.7%): ==== 11 (99.4%): == Avg HP remaining: 10.6 of 27 -12 (0.6%): == -11 (1.2%): === -10 (2.1%): ==== -9 (3.2%): ===== -8 (4.5%): ====== -7 (6.0%): ======= -6 (7.7%): ======== -5 (9.8%): ========== -4 (12.1%): =========== -3 (14.6%): ============= -2 (17.0%): ============ -1 (19.4%): =========== 0 (21.6%): =========== 1 (24.4%): ============= 2 (26.6%): =========== 3 (29.0%): ============ 4 (31.5%): ============ 5 (34.1%): ============= 6 (36.7%): ============= 7 (39.3%): ============= 8 (42.0%): ============== 9 (44.9%): ============== 10 (47.9%): =============== 11 (49.9%): ========== 12 (51.7%): ========= 13 (53.2%): ======= 14 (61.2%): ======================================== 15 (64.7%): ================== 16 (68.1%): ================ 17 (71.2%): ================ 18 (74.1%): ============== 19 (76.9%): ============= 20 (79.4%): ============ 21 (81.9%): ============ 22 (84.4%): ============ 23 (86.9%): ============ 27(100.0%): =================================================================== [/code]Under these circumstances, the PC dies 21.6% of the time, and takes no damage at all 13.1% of the time. The fights are over a little more quickly because if the PC can't mop up the monster in a decent amount of time, the monster mops up the PC. There's an interesting spike at the 14hp mark--for some reason, taking exactly 13 damage is the most common damage, if you're damaged at all. I presume that's because it's critical damage--it's not that criticals are more common, but that critical damage is non-random, making it jump out of the noise more. Similarly, I presume hp of 11-13 and 24-26 is uncommon because the monster always deals at least 4 damage. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
Top