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*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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<blockquote data-quote="Truename" data-source="post: 4983460" data-attributes="member: 78255"><p><strong>Powers, Surges, and Feats, oh my!</strong></p><p></p><p>Up until now, we've only been using basic attacks... no wonder our PC dies a fifth of the time. It's time to make things more realistic.</p><p></p><p>For my level 1 feat, I chose Dwarven Weapon Training, and also upgraded my maul to a mordencrad. This bumped my death rate down to 16.6% and helped bring down the amount of combat time as well. Now the most common combat is 3 rounds long, with an average of 4.3.</p><p></p><p>[code]</p><p>LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER (no powers)</p><p>Fights simulated: 1000000</p><p></p><p>Avg rounds: 4.3</p><p> 2 (15.8%): ============================================</p><p> 3 (39.6%): ===================================================================</p><p> 4 (61.7%): ==============================================================</p><p> 5 (77.9%): =============================================</p><p> 6 (88.2%): ============================</p><p> 7 (94.1%): ================</p><p> 8 (97.1%): ========</p><p> 9 (98.7%): ====</p><p> 10 (99.4%): ==</p><p></p><p>Avg HP remaining: 13.3 of 27</p><p>-12 (0.4%): =</p><p>-11 (0.8%): =</p><p>-10 (1.3%): =</p><p> -9 (2.1%): ==</p><p> -8 (2.9%): ==</p><p> -7 (3.9%): ===</p><p> -6 (5.1%): ===</p><p> -5 (6.4%): ====</p><p> -4 (7.9%): =====</p><p> -3 (9.6%): =====</p><p> -2 (11.2%): =====</p><p> -1 (12.8%): =====</p><p> 0 (14.3%): =====</p><p> 1 (16.6%): =======</p><p> 2 (18.5%): ======</p><p> 3 (20.5%): ======</p><p> 4 (22.6%): =======</p><p> 5 (24.8%): =======</p><p> 6 (27.0%): =======</p><p> 7 (29.4%): =======</p><p> 8 (31.8%): ========</p><p> 9 (34.4%): ========</p><p> 10 (37.1%): =========</p><p> 11 (39.0%): ======</p><p> 12 (40.6%): =====</p><p> 13 (41.9%): ====</p><p> 14 (51.0%): ===============================</p><p> 15 (54.9%): =============</p><p> 16 (58.7%): ============</p><p> 17 (62.2%): ============</p><p> 18 (65.5%): ===========</p><p> 19 (68.6%): ==========</p><p> 20 (71.6%): ==========</p><p> 21 (74.6%): ==========</p><p> 22 (77.5%): ==========</p><p> 23 (80.5%): ==========</p><p> 27(100.0%): ===================================================================</p><p>[/code]Next I replaced my basic attack with the at-will "Reaping Strike." I haven't bothered programming in the other at-will yet (I chose Cleave) because there's only one enemy.</p><p></p><p>Reaping Strike really helped. Survivability is way up (death happens 6.6% of the time) and combat time is even lower. I attribute this to Reaping Strike's fantastic 'miss' power, which helps reduce the variability of combat. The monster's going down eventually.</p><p></p><p>[code]</p><p> 2 (15.9%): ===========================</p><p> 3 (54.8%): ===================================================================</p><p> 4 (81.4%): =============================================</p><p> 5 (96.4%): =========================</p><p> 6 (99.4%): =====</p><p></p><p>Avg HP remaining: 15.7 of 27</p><p> -8 (1.3%): =</p><p> -7 (1.7%): =</p><p> -6 (2.3%): =</p><p> -5 (2.9%): =</p><p> -4 (3.6%): =</p><p> -3 (4.4%): ==</p><p> -2 (5.2%): ==</p><p> -1 (5.9%): ==</p><p> 0 (6.6%): ==</p><p> 1 (8.6%): =====</p><p> 2 (10.1%): ====</p><p> 3 (11.8%): ====</p><p> 4 (13.7%): =====</p><p> 5 (15.7%): =====</p><p> 6 (17.8%): =====</p><p> 7 (20.0%): ======</p><p> 8 (22.4%): ======</p><p> 9 (24.8%): ======</p><p> 10 (27.5%): =======</p><p> 11 (29.2%): ====</p><p> 12 (30.8%): ====</p><p> 13 (32.2%): ===</p><p> 14 (42.5%): ============================</p><p> 15 (46.8%): ============</p><p> 16 (51.0%): ===========</p><p> 17 (55.0%): ===========</p><p> 18 (58.8%): ==========</p><p> 19 (62.4%): ==========</p><p> 20 (65.8%): =========</p><p> 21 (69.2%): =========</p><p> 22 (72.7%): =========</p><p> 23 (76.1%): =========</p><p> 27(100.0%): ===================================================================</p><p>[/code]The final touch, though, was to implement Second Wind. Ready access to healing is one of the major things that separates PCs from monsters. Since second wind is a minor action for dwarves, it's essentially free (given that there's no other minor actions in play yet). I programmed the dwarf to spend the surge as soon as none of it would be wasted.</p><p></p><p>While I was at it, I also programmed in short rests. The dwarf tries to maximize his hit points during the short rest, but doesn't want to waste surges either. He's willing to spend a surge if he'll get at least 3/4 of the hit points from it. (In other words, he'll spend an 8-hp healing surge even if he only needs 6 hit points to hit max, but that's as far as he'll go.)</p><p></p><p>With the new healing ability, our hero is very resilient. He only dies 3% of the time, and easily heals back up to full after each encounter. Now the question isn't how long the fight took, or whether he'll survive, but how many surges the encounter consumed.</p><p></p><p>[code]</p><p>LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER</p><p>Fights simulated: 1000000</p><p></p><p>Avg rounds: 3.5</p><p> 2 (15.8%): ===========================</p><p> 3 (54.1%): ===================================================================</p><p> 4 (80.4%): ==============================================</p><p> 5 (96.0%): ===========================</p><p> 6 (99.3%): =====</p><p></p><p>Avg HP remaining: 25.1 of 27</p><p> 0 (3.0%): =</p><p> 23 (14.8%): =====================</p><p> 24 (22.8%): ==============</p><p> 25 (32.5%): =================</p><p> 26 (50.7%): =================================</p><p> 27 (87.3%): ===================================================================</p><p> 28(100.0%): =======================</p><p></p><p>Avg surges remaining: 8.4 of 10</p><p> 5 (2.4%): =====</p><p> 6 (10.7%): ====================</p><p> 7 (24.4%): =================================</p><p> 8 (48.0%): =========================================================</p><p> 9 (72.7%): ============================================================</p><p> 10(100.0%): ===================================================================</p><p></p><p>Death: 3.0%</p><p>[/code]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Truename, post: 4983460, member: 78255"] [b]Powers, Surges, and Feats, oh my![/b] Up until now, we've only been using basic attacks... no wonder our PC dies a fifth of the time. It's time to make things more realistic. For my level 1 feat, I chose Dwarven Weapon Training, and also upgraded my maul to a mordencrad. This bumped my death rate down to 16.6% and helped bring down the amount of combat time as well. Now the most common combat is 3 rounds long, with an average of 4.3. [code] LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER (no powers) Fights simulated: 1000000 Avg rounds: 4.3 2 (15.8%): ============================================ 3 (39.6%): =================================================================== 4 (61.7%): ============================================================== 5 (77.9%): ============================================= 6 (88.2%): ============================ 7 (94.1%): ================ 8 (97.1%): ======== 9 (98.7%): ==== 10 (99.4%): == Avg HP remaining: 13.3 of 27 -12 (0.4%): = -11 (0.8%): = -10 (1.3%): = -9 (2.1%): == -8 (2.9%): == -7 (3.9%): === -6 (5.1%): === -5 (6.4%): ==== -4 (7.9%): ===== -3 (9.6%): ===== -2 (11.2%): ===== -1 (12.8%): ===== 0 (14.3%): ===== 1 (16.6%): ======= 2 (18.5%): ====== 3 (20.5%): ====== 4 (22.6%): ======= 5 (24.8%): ======= 6 (27.0%): ======= 7 (29.4%): ======= 8 (31.8%): ======== 9 (34.4%): ======== 10 (37.1%): ========= 11 (39.0%): ====== 12 (40.6%): ===== 13 (41.9%): ==== 14 (51.0%): =============================== 15 (54.9%): ============= 16 (58.7%): ============ 17 (62.2%): ============ 18 (65.5%): =========== 19 (68.6%): ========== 20 (71.6%): ========== 21 (74.6%): ========== 22 (77.5%): ========== 23 (80.5%): ========== 27(100.0%): =================================================================== [/code]Next I replaced my basic attack with the at-will "Reaping Strike." I haven't bothered programming in the other at-will yet (I chose Cleave) because there's only one enemy. Reaping Strike really helped. Survivability is way up (death happens 6.6% of the time) and combat time is even lower. I attribute this to Reaping Strike's fantastic 'miss' power, which helps reduce the variability of combat. The monster's going down eventually. [code] 2 (15.9%): =========================== 3 (54.8%): =================================================================== 4 (81.4%): ============================================= 5 (96.4%): ========================= 6 (99.4%): ===== Avg HP remaining: 15.7 of 27 -8 (1.3%): = -7 (1.7%): = -6 (2.3%): = -5 (2.9%): = -4 (3.6%): = -3 (4.4%): == -2 (5.2%): == -1 (5.9%): == 0 (6.6%): == 1 (8.6%): ===== 2 (10.1%): ==== 3 (11.8%): ==== 4 (13.7%): ===== 5 (15.7%): ===== 6 (17.8%): ===== 7 (20.0%): ====== 8 (22.4%): ====== 9 (24.8%): ====== 10 (27.5%): ======= 11 (29.2%): ==== 12 (30.8%): ==== 13 (32.2%): === 14 (42.5%): ============================ 15 (46.8%): ============ 16 (51.0%): =========== 17 (55.0%): =========== 18 (58.8%): ========== 19 (62.4%): ========== 20 (65.8%): ========= 21 (69.2%): ========= 22 (72.7%): ========= 23 (76.1%): ========= 27(100.0%): =================================================================== [/code]The final touch, though, was to implement Second Wind. Ready access to healing is one of the major things that separates PCs from monsters. Since second wind is a minor action for dwarves, it's essentially free (given that there's no other minor actions in play yet). I programmed the dwarf to spend the surge as soon as none of it would be wasted. While I was at it, I also programmed in short rests. The dwarf tries to maximize his hit points during the short rest, but doesn't want to waste surges either. He's willing to spend a surge if he'll get at least 3/4 of the hit points from it. (In other words, he'll spend an 8-hp healing surge even if he only needs 6 hit points to hit max, but that's as far as he'll go.) With the new healing ability, our hero is very resilient. He only dies 3% of the time, and easily heals back up to full after each encounter. Now the question isn't how long the fight took, or whether he'll survive, but how many surges the encounter consumed. [code] LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER Fights simulated: 1000000 Avg rounds: 3.5 2 (15.8%): =========================== 3 (54.1%): =================================================================== 4 (80.4%): ============================================== 5 (96.0%): =========================== 6 (99.3%): ===== Avg HP remaining: 25.1 of 27 0 (3.0%): = 23 (14.8%): ===================== 24 (22.8%): ============== 25 (32.5%): ================= 26 (50.7%): ================================= 27 (87.3%): =================================================================== 28(100.0%): ======================= Avg surges remaining: 8.4 of 10 5 (2.4%): ===== 6 (10.7%): ==================== 7 (24.4%): ================================= 8 (48.0%): ========================================================= 9 (72.7%): ============================================================ 10(100.0%): =================================================================== Death: 3.0% [/code] [/QUOTE]
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