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General Tabletop Discussion
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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<blockquote data-quote="Elric" data-source="post: 4983690" data-attributes="member: 1139"><p>I don't like using 1d10+3 (8.5) damage for a first level monster. First, using the same damage total for every group of 3 levels (as is true in the DMG) doesn't make sense. I see why they didn't write a different expression for every level, but when doing analysis you should make this measure more continuous. </p><p></p><p>Second, if you take the average damage and associate it with the middle level for each group and fit a best-fit line to it, you get a lower result at the bottom than 8.5. Differences in the rate damage goes up in this table seem fairly random; there's a low correlation between the 'high damage' expression increasing more and the 'medium damage' expression increasing more; if the damage was set based on players getting stronger at certain levels then there should be a high correlation here (this is a reason to average out to avoid these discrepancies). Third, I think 8.5 is somewhat higher than actual level 1 monster damage. </p><p></p><p>I'd modify this Dwarf fighter so he had higher Constitution, by the way. 18 Str/13 Con/13 Wis pre-racial seems like a good choice, as he'll want high Con for hit points, surges, and Axe/Hammer feats, and Wisdom for increasing OA to-hit and maybe other abilities (pit fighter pp) as well.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Elric, post: 4983690, member: 1139"] I don't like using 1d10+3 (8.5) damage for a first level monster. First, using the same damage total for every group of 3 levels (as is true in the DMG) doesn't make sense. I see why they didn't write a different expression for every level, but when doing analysis you should make this measure more continuous. Second, if you take the average damage and associate it with the middle level for each group and fit a best-fit line to it, you get a lower result at the bottom than 8.5. Differences in the rate damage goes up in this table seem fairly random; there's a low correlation between the 'high damage' expression increasing more and the 'medium damage' expression increasing more; if the damage was set based on players getting stronger at certain levels then there should be a high correlation here (this is a reason to average out to avoid these discrepancies). Third, I think 8.5 is somewhat higher than actual level 1 monster damage. I'd modify this Dwarf fighter so he had higher Constitution, by the way. 18 Str/13 Con/13 Wis pre-racial seems like a good choice, as he'll want high Con for hit points, surges, and Axe/Hammer feats, and Wisdom for increasing OA to-hit and maybe other abilities (pit fighter pp) as well. [/QUOTE]
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Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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