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*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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<blockquote data-quote="Truename" data-source="post: 4985938" data-attributes="member: 78255"><p>Quick update about what's going on:</p><p></p><p>I'm on vacation this week, which is giving me extra time to work on this. (Like I said, I'm a programmer. This is my idea of a great way to spend a Friday evening.) I'm taking advantage of the time to clean up the code and put in automated tests. As you can see from some of the mistakes I made, it was getting unwieldy as the complexity of the simulation grew.</p><p></p><p>Now that you've had a chance to see how the Monte-Carlo simulation works and where we're going, I'd like to pull way back and focus on getting the basic combat simulation solid. I'm going to start running simulations of exactly one fight, with a complete combat log (who rolled what, with what bonuses, and so forth) and I'm hoping you'll help out with fact-checking to make sure there's no more bonehead mistakes like a soldier with a +3 to-hit.</p><p></p><p>We'll build that combat engine up from where it is now to a complete 5-on-5 simulation, with movement and conditions, then turn the Monte-Carlo analyses back on. The sim is so basic right now it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions from the Monte-Carlo results, and the aggregated results of the Monte-Carlo makes it hard to fact-check the sim. So focusing on just one fight at a time will allow us to make more progress.</p><p></p><p>I also plan on putting the source code up somewhere like github, but I don't have good Internet access right now. I won't be posting much for the same reason.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Truename, post: 4985938, member: 78255"] Quick update about what's going on: I'm on vacation this week, which is giving me extra time to work on this. (Like I said, I'm a programmer. This is my idea of a great way to spend a Friday evening.) I'm taking advantage of the time to clean up the code and put in automated tests. As you can see from some of the mistakes I made, it was getting unwieldy as the complexity of the simulation grew. Now that you've had a chance to see how the Monte-Carlo simulation works and where we're going, I'd like to pull way back and focus on getting the basic combat simulation solid. I'm going to start running simulations of exactly one fight, with a complete combat log (who rolled what, with what bonuses, and so forth) and I'm hoping you'll help out with fact-checking to make sure there's no more bonehead mistakes like a soldier with a +3 to-hit. We'll build that combat engine up from where it is now to a complete 5-on-5 simulation, with movement and conditions, then turn the Monte-Carlo analyses back on. The sim is so basic right now it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions from the Monte-Carlo results, and the aggregated results of the Monte-Carlo makes it hard to fact-check the sim. So focusing on just one fight at a time will allow us to make more progress. I also plan on putting the source code up somewhere like github, but I don't have good Internet access right now. I won't be posting much for the same reason. [/QUOTE]
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Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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