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*Pathfinder & Starfinder
Monte Carlo versus "The Math"
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<blockquote data-quote="Truename" data-source="post: 5010668" data-attributes="member: 78255"><p><strong>Let's do it.</strong></p><p></p><p>The original purpose of this sim was to provide some insight into the balance of the 4e math. Specifically, I'm interested in whether the obvious disparity between monsters AC/to-hit and PCs' AC/to-hit at high levels makes as much difference as people think it does, and whether the much-maligned Expertise feats break or fix the game.</p><p></p><p>I think we're ready to start examining that question. Although there's still a lot missing from the sim (character movement and a full party being the biggest things), the one-on-one combats are pretty good. A trivial analysis of the math says that survivability should steadily drop as character level increases, and that adding Expertise feats would fix the problem. The counter-argument is that powers, feats, paragon paths, epic destinies, and magic items make up the difference. Our one-on-one sim is good enough to answer the question.</p><p></p><p>Where I need help is with the build. I need a level 1-30 build of our dwarf. Any build is fine so long as it's consistently optimized and "real" (meaning it uses the retraining rules rather than being built from scratch at each level). Magic items should be included--let's assume the dwarf receives one level+2 magic item at each level. Also, restrict yourself to pre-Expertise material: PHB 1 and Martial Power only. (No Dragon, because I'm not sure if it's balanced as carefully as the books.) I'll enhance the sim level by level and post the results as I make progress.</p><p></p><p>A few restrictions: I'd rather make progress than code up a lot of AI or movement support, so choose tactically simple powers over complicated ones. In particular, don't choose powers or items that affect multiple enemies or apply movement-based conditions like Slow or Immobilize. (Are there enough powers to do this?) Because the benefits of those powers won't be modeled by our sim, they'll skew the results.</p><p></p><p><strong>So, the questions we're answering: "Does survivability drop significantly from level 1 to 30 when using a pre-Expertise build?" and "If it survivability drops, does Expertise 'fix' it by making survivability rates level? If it doesn't, does Expertise 'break' it by making survivability rates increase from level 1 to 30?" For the sake of argument, my hypothesis is "no" and "no." <img src="http://www.enworld.org/forum/images/smilies/devil.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":devil:" title="Devil :devil:" data-shortname=":devil:" /></strong></p><p></p><p>I'm looking forward to seeing the results. This won't be the final answer to the math balance question, since we're focusing on just one character in static melee combat, but it should be a far better answer than what we have today.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Truename, post: 5010668, member: 78255"] [b]Let's do it.[/b] The original purpose of this sim was to provide some insight into the balance of the 4e math. Specifically, I'm interested in whether the obvious disparity between monsters AC/to-hit and PCs' AC/to-hit at high levels makes as much difference as people think it does, and whether the much-maligned Expertise feats break or fix the game. I think we're ready to start examining that question. Although there's still a lot missing from the sim (character movement and a full party being the biggest things), the one-on-one combats are pretty good. A trivial analysis of the math says that survivability should steadily drop as character level increases, and that adding Expertise feats would fix the problem. The counter-argument is that powers, feats, paragon paths, epic destinies, and magic items make up the difference. Our one-on-one sim is good enough to answer the question. Where I need help is with the build. I need a level 1-30 build of our dwarf. Any build is fine so long as it's consistently optimized and "real" (meaning it uses the retraining rules rather than being built from scratch at each level). Magic items should be included--let's assume the dwarf receives one level+2 magic item at each level. Also, restrict yourself to pre-Expertise material: PHB 1 and Martial Power only. (No Dragon, because I'm not sure if it's balanced as carefully as the books.) I'll enhance the sim level by level and post the results as I make progress. A few restrictions: I'd rather make progress than code up a lot of AI or movement support, so choose tactically simple powers over complicated ones. In particular, don't choose powers or items that affect multiple enemies or apply movement-based conditions like Slow or Immobilize. (Are there enough powers to do this?) Because the benefits of those powers won't be modeled by our sim, they'll skew the results. [B]So, the questions we're answering: "Does survivability drop significantly from level 1 to 30 when using a pre-Expertise build?" and "If it survivability drops, does Expertise 'fix' it by making survivability rates level? If it doesn't, does Expertise 'break' it by making survivability rates increase from level 1 to 30?" For the sake of argument, my hypothesis is "no" and "no." :devil:[/B] I'm looking forward to seeing the results. This won't be the final answer to the math balance question, since we're focusing on just one character in static melee combat, but it should be a far better answer than what we have today. [/QUOTE]
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