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Message: <blockquote data-quote="hong" data-source="post: 1688057" data-attributes="member: 537">No. 2/20 means that the chance of saving increases by roughly 10 percentage points. However, going from a 20% probability of saving to 30% means that you have increased your chance of success by one-half. This is different to going from a 70% probability of saving to 80%, where you increase your chance of success by only 14.3%. Basically, the more in the hole you are to start with, the more beneficial a save bonus is. This is why fighters should get Iron Will, and wizards should get Great Fort.Well, EVERYONE should get Great Fort, because the consequences of failing a Fort save tend to be worse than for the other types, at high levels. So it never hurts to have as high a Fort save as you can get. But that's another issue.It's also an approximation because at the top end of the scale, when your save bonus is already high enough that you always succeed anyway, it doesn't matter that you get a +2. You might roll a 2 and still make the save.Of course you need to condition! It's necessary to find the conditional expectation, where the expectation is taken over the distribution of save DCs and conditioning is on your save bonus. You can't really obtain a universal expression for the distribution of save DCs (that's dependent on the campaign), but for any individual distribution of save DCs, you can say something about what would happen, given an individual character's save bonus. Basically, you get a different result depending on have a good save or a poor save: a good save means the extra bonus from the feat contributes relatively less, while a poor save means the opposite.</blockquote>

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