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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Chris_Nightwing" data-source="post: 4470265" data-attributes="member: 882">I have observed the disaster that is the current skill challenge system and I have observed the two systems proposed by Stalker0 (whose input I would appreciate should he see this). Then a thought struck me that one of the most excellent systems in 4th edition could be adapted for use in skill challenges: namely, the disease track.The disease track is essentially a state-machine, where the probability of changing from one state to another (or staying the same in this case) can be calculated from a skill roll. This means the maths is very simple, as it can be analysed as a Markov Chain, hence summarised in a matrix and raised to an infinite power to measure the likelyhood of success or failure. I haven't finished playing around with the numbers (it's late here) but here's an outline:The players start the challenge looking not for a particular number of successes or failures, but progression either up or down the skill track. If a skill check is failed, they progress down towards failure, if succeeded, they progress up towards success. A challenge shouldn't end on one bad roll, so there are always two stages below the starting position. Difficulty is determined by the DC of the tasks at each stage, not (much) by the number of consecutive successes required (see below for maths). Here is a very simple example, complexity 2:Success! Win a gold piece, an xp and everyone likes you! ¦You spot a nearby great big tree, which you think might be sturdy enough to get everyone across. Medium (DC 15) Athletics (to climb atop and use your weight to fell it), Endurance (to chop it down, hard work) ¦You are confronted by a treacherous chasm (too wide to jump) which you must cross to continue your adventure. Easy (DC 10) Nature (chasms, eh?), Perception (look over there it's a-) ¦You flounce around, throwing stones into the chasm out of boredom, maybe that wasn't such a good idea. Easy (DC 10) Endurance (to stay perfectly still), Acrobatics (to catch the bored PC's rock), Perception (to spot rocks tumbling up ahead) ¦Failure <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f641.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":(" title="Frown    :("  data-smilie="3"data-shortname=":(" /> - rocks fall.Ok, so my example is a bit silly, but the general idea is there. Interestingly, if you run the maths then if there were say, 5 success stages before completion instead of 2 success stages, the overall chance of success is only slightly (<1%) reduced, unless you are near 50/50 every dice roll. There are also many ways to expand on the basic principle without destroying the challenge. You can add 'anchor' stages, where failure won't send you down a stage. You can modify the system so that you only move down a stage when you fail to reach the DC by 5 or more. You can vary the DC of checks at different stages (the earlier ones obviously impacting the overall chance of success the most, but then you can have difficult finales without hurting the party). Most importantly, the addition of a time limit is crucial, since these chains can go on forever, and when there are only four rounds to win, the party usually all get involved. I think a number of rounds equal to the complexity works out best, but again, I've only lightly run the numbers.So, I guess I'd like to open myself up to being torn down, so to speak. Have I got anything wrong with my maths? Is the principle just awful? Are there any more interesting additions that could be made, or suggestions I've made that won't work? Is it too complicated/time-consuming/lame? Comments welcome <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile    :)"  data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" />!</blockquote>

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