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Message: <blockquote data-quote="ichabod" data-source="post: 717099" data-attributes="member: 1257">Re: Re: Re: Re: here I come again with my lazinessRight. Let's take a fighter who has a 50% chance to hit, and does 10 damage on average (just b/c those are easy numbers to deal with). Also, assume a 20/x3 weapon. On 11-19 he does 10 damage on average, and on 20 he does 20 damage on average (0.5*10+0.5*30, to take into account not confirming the critical). So that's (9*10+20)/20=5.5 average damage for an attack.Now he takes the -5 to increase his threat range to 19-20. Now on 16-18 he does 10 points on average, and on 19-20 he does 20 points. Now it's (3*10+2*20)/20=3.5 average damage for the attack. -2 expected damage for using the feat. That's what I mean by giving up five chances to do X=10 damage (the 11-15 he no longer hits on) to get one chance (on a 19) to do 2X more (20 more, but only if he confirms the critical).If we go with -4, he does 4 points of damage on average. At -2 it's 5 points on average (my earlier statement didn't take into account confirming the critical). Now if he's facing DR 5/- with the -5 rule he goes from 3 to 2.25. Still worse with the feat, but not as bad. Now, if you're assuming the +1 threat goes in before doubling from keen/improved critical (IDHTBIFOM to check if that would be standard under the rules), it might be useful there. However, that wouldn't help lower level fighters, and I'm not sure keen/improved critical needs to be improved.Let's look at taking -2 to AC to improve threat by 1. The above fighter goes from 5.5 expected damage to 6 expected damage. If he's facing his clone, his opponent goes from 5.5 expected damage to 6.7 expected damage. Still not a fair trade.  But if his opponent is only doing 9 damage on an average hit, his overall expected damage for the attack only goes from 4.95 to 5.94. Now this is still a losing proposition unless you are doing a good bit more average damage than your opponent. It would also be helpful against people with less hit points, but not so much as to be worth a feat, methinks.</blockquote>

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