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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scribe" data-source="post: 8448559" data-attributes="member: 6807152">If you have a 16 in your Primary Stat, with your proficiency bonus, you have a 65% chance to hit against a save/AC of 13 which is the assumed AC at CR 1/4.This chance to hit will remain consistent as you go up the expected AC levels, assuming you put your ASI points into your primary.Feats are not accounted for AT ALL. If you use feats, you already blow out the 'expectation' of a 65% chance. A combination of Standard Array (15) plus ASI (Racial, Human or Floating = 17) + a Feat (Athlete +1 = 18) for being a Variant Human PLUS Bless? 75% chance to hit. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f923.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":ROFLMAO:" title="ROFL    :ROFLMAO:"  data-smilie="18"data-shortname=":ROFLMAO:" />An Ancient Silver Dragon has an AC of 22. You have in that scenario a 30% to hit a CR 23 Creature, at level 1. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile    :)"  data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" />A +5 at level 1, grants you 65%, and this is maintained at every level but 9, assuming you start at 16 and put your stat increases into your primary.So this is the fundamental question. Do you need to hit 65% of the time?"Balanced" has been discussed a few times, but nobody cares to define it.Xanathar says our Level 1 PC fights a 1/4 CR Enemy. If I crack open MToF and check, I see examples to grab a few.Abyssal WretchDerroStar Spaw GrueWretch AC 11, HP 18, Bite (+3 Hit, 5 Damage)Grue AC 11, HP 17, Bile (+3 Hit, 6 Damage)Derro AC 13, HP 13, Spear (+2 Hit, 3 Damage)I set a Level 1 PC against a Wretch on the following site.[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.dndcombat.com//[/URL]You will notice in the pictures below, the Party defaulted to a Blood Hunter, with 14 Str, 14 Dex, and ran the simulator. It claimed I won out of 25 fights, 68% of the time.So is that 'balanced'? Should a level 1 PC be expected to win against a 1/4 CR monster nearly 70% of the time, when that is what they are suggested to fight in a random encounter as per Xanathars tables?You tell me I guess.Does that +1 going from 15, to 16 or 17 make all the difference?Lets just say I remain utterly unconvinced of any requirement for a 16 for a PC to be effective at their role based on the guidelines provided by Wizards themselves... <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f609.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=";)" title="Wink    ;)"  data-smilie="2"data-shortname=";)" />[ATTACH=full]146213[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]146214[/ATTACH]EDIT: I make no claims that my math is without flaw! <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f923.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":ROFLMAO:" title="ROFL    :ROFLMAO:"  data-smilie="18"data-shortname=":ROFLMAO:" /></blockquote>

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