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Message: <blockquote data-quote="BobTheNob" data-source="post: 5108985" data-attributes="member: 82425">A very simple way of thinking about this... Lets say an enemy would need a 11 to hit you (50% average). Lets say you somehow get a +1 boost to your defence, and the enemy therefore needs a 12 to hit you (now 45%). Has the chance he hits you changed by 5%? Yes. Has the chance that he hits you decreased by 5%? No. Its 10% By saying 5% you are comparing the factor of the change to 100% (i.e. 5/100) where you should be comparing the shift(5%) to the original probability (50%), which is 5/50, or 10% Same scenario, but lets say the enemy needed a 19 (10%). You get the same +1 bonus to defence so he now needs a 20 (5%) (leave crits out of debate for now) Has the chance he hits you changed by 5%? Yes. Has the chance that he hits you decreased by 5%? No. Its more like 50% The change that he hits you has decreased by 5/10 or 50% This is very rough an non-formulaic (just cant be stuffed right now) but this is the principal of how probability works on an ajusted flat d20 roll. 1 <> 5%, and it scales dramatically at the extreme end of the probability. What you have to think is not how often every 20 rolls he hits, but how often he hits before, compared to how often he does after. By taking a creature fro 10 hits every 20 to 9 hits every 20, the impact is fairly minimal, but by taking a creature from 2 hits every 20 to 1 every twenty, you have halved hit hit rate...same +1, completely different effect. If you feel you can buy into debates over when a class(/other) has a number that is too high (like the debates over avenger AC) is is ESSENTIAL you understand this principal, cause if you dont, your just wasting everyones time.</blockquote>

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