Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Rocket your D&D 5E and Level Up: Advanced 5E games into space! Alpha Star Magazine Is Launching... Right Now!
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
oldest theory disproved(ot but great)
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Saeviomagy" data-source="post: 891905" data-attributes="member: 5890"><p>That's because it's random and not design. One of the fundamental parts of the concept 'design' is that it has to have some forethought. Arguing that design isn't random or vice versa is bordering on the nonsensical.</p><p></p><p>As for the casino - the likelyhood (not fact, not certainty - likelyhood) that you will never see one is beause it's an extremely complex pattern. It requires the simultaeneous occurrence of a very large number of random factors. The likelyhood of a pink elephant manifesting in the air next to you is the same as the likelyhood of a particular formation of any other type of particle, regardless of concepts such as order or design.</p><p></p><p>Lets think up an example that might get something across to you.</p><p></p><p>Toss a coin. Keep tossing it. At some point, assuming you're not cheating, you will get a run of either heads or tails. You will get lots of heads or tails in a row.</p><p></p><p>Now. Roll a die. At some point, you will get lots of a certain number in a row.</p><p></p><p>Now roll a 26-sided die. At some point, you will get lots of a certain letter. Keep rolling long enough, and you'll be able to take a subset of your rolling which WILL have the distribution of letters required for human language.</p><p></p><p>It's a phenomenon called 'clumping'. Any real random number generator will do it, because a pattern with a predominance of a certain outcome is just as likely as a pattern with a predominance of some other outcome, or a pattern with no dominant result.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Any statistician who feels comfortable with using the exact words "will never happen in this universe" with no qualifiers is someone who doesn't understand the most basic elements of his own craft. "Will most likely never happen in this universe" is perfectly acceptable.</p><p></p><p>In the coin flipping example, there is a 1/2 chance that the coin will come up heads. This doesn't by any chance mean that you need to flip it twice to have heads come up. Nor does it mean that flipping it twice will result in heads coming up. It just means that 1/2 flips will, over a sufficiently large sample, will be heads.</p><p></p><p>That's why some event which is extremely unlikely can never be ruled out of happening. No matter what the odds, it COULD happen right now. It could never happen. It could happen 8 times in the next 6 seconds. We can assign probabilities to all these things, and we can label some as insignificant, not worth bothering about etc, but we can never label them as impossible.</p><p></p><p>p.s. On my random character/phrase recognition program (aptly named "Monkey.java"), the phrase " This" took some 8317289 randomly generated characters (from a set of 91 possible characters) to produce. Statistically the combination should come up 1/6240321451 combinations of any given 5 characters from that set. Looks like I got lucky.</p><p></p><p>I would run it on longer sentences, but I fear it would be a rather fruitless waste of my time. The chances of it finishing a 19 letter sentence within my lifetime are rather slim...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Saeviomagy, post: 891905, member: 5890"] That's because it's random and not design. One of the fundamental parts of the concept 'design' is that it has to have some forethought. Arguing that design isn't random or vice versa is bordering on the nonsensical. As for the casino - the likelyhood (not fact, not certainty - likelyhood) that you will never see one is beause it's an extremely complex pattern. It requires the simultaeneous occurrence of a very large number of random factors. The likelyhood of a pink elephant manifesting in the air next to you is the same as the likelyhood of a particular formation of any other type of particle, regardless of concepts such as order or design. Lets think up an example that might get something across to you. Toss a coin. Keep tossing it. At some point, assuming you're not cheating, you will get a run of either heads or tails. You will get lots of heads or tails in a row. Now. Roll a die. At some point, you will get lots of a certain number in a row. Now roll a 26-sided die. At some point, you will get lots of a certain letter. Keep rolling long enough, and you'll be able to take a subset of your rolling which WILL have the distribution of letters required for human language. It's a phenomenon called 'clumping'. Any real random number generator will do it, because a pattern with a predominance of a certain outcome is just as likely as a pattern with a predominance of some other outcome, or a pattern with no dominant result. Any statistician who feels comfortable with using the exact words "will never happen in this universe" with no qualifiers is someone who doesn't understand the most basic elements of his own craft. "Will most likely never happen in this universe" is perfectly acceptable. In the coin flipping example, there is a 1/2 chance that the coin will come up heads. This doesn't by any chance mean that you need to flip it twice to have heads come up. Nor does it mean that flipping it twice will result in heads coming up. It just means that 1/2 flips will, over a sufficiently large sample, will be heads. That's why some event which is extremely unlikely can never be ruled out of happening. No matter what the odds, it COULD happen right now. It could never happen. It could happen 8 times in the next 6 seconds. We can assign probabilities to all these things, and we can label some as insignificant, not worth bothering about etc, but we can never label them as impossible. p.s. On my random character/phrase recognition program (aptly named "Monkey.java"), the phrase " This" took some 8317289 randomly generated characters (from a set of 91 possible characters) to produce. Statistically the combination should come up 1/6240321451 combinations of any given 5 characters from that set. Looks like I got lucky. I would run it on longer sentences, but I fear it would be a rather fruitless waste of my time. The chances of it finishing a 19 letter sentence within my lifetime are rather slim... [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
oldest theory disproved(ot but great)
Top