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On Die Averages and Hit Points in 5e
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<blockquote data-quote="clearstream" data-source="post: 8315620" data-attributes="member: 71699"><p>Yes, adding Con bonus to each die. I cheated on the maths by making a monte carlo and that indicated to me on surface that most characters will fall several points behind taking averages. Possibly because of discarding (rerolling) that one first maximum die after 1st-level.</p><p></p><p>My comparative is 8+(7*5) vs the better out of 7d8 and 8d8. Looking at anydice, the chance of <strong>not</strong> doing better than 42 across those two rolls is above 80%. A similar case is 6+(7*4) vs the better of 7d6 and 8d6. The chance of <strong>not </strong>doing better than 34 across the two rolls is in the range of 90%. That's not considering the full progression of course, so the real odds must be a few % more favourable.</p><p></p><p>Based on our historical campaign tracking, to reach that level we're going to see eight or so characters. So crudely, I might expect one or two characters to do better than max-at-L1+(average-roundup*level). Most likely martials (as the bigger the die, the greater the chance of doing better).</p><p></p><p>I'm aiming for characters to feel a bit more precarious, so I do want them rolling. An alternative is to revert to reroll-1s, if I made that mandatory. I wouldn't use straight rolls due to the locking in bad rolls factor.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="clearstream, post: 8315620, member: 71699"] Yes, adding Con bonus to each die. I cheated on the maths by making a monte carlo and that indicated to me on surface that most characters will fall several points behind taking averages. Possibly because of discarding (rerolling) that one first maximum die after 1st-level. My comparative is 8+(7*5) vs the better out of 7d8 and 8d8. Looking at anydice, the chance of [B]not[/B] doing better than 42 across those two rolls is above 80%. A similar case is 6+(7*4) vs the better of 7d6 and 8d6. The chance of [B]not [/B]doing better than 34 across the two rolls is in the range of 90%. That's not considering the full progression of course, so the real odds must be a few % more favourable. Based on our historical campaign tracking, to reach that level we're going to see eight or so characters. So crudely, I might expect one or two characters to do better than max-at-L1+(average-roundup*level). Most likely martials (as the bigger the die, the greater the chance of doing better). I'm aiming for characters to feel a bit more precarious, so I do want them rolling. An alternative is to revert to reroll-1s, if I made that mandatory. I wouldn't use straight rolls due to the locking in bad rolls factor. [/QUOTE]
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On Die Averages and Hit Points in 5e
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