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On Saving Throws (a Monster Manual Analysis)
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<blockquote data-quote="CapnZapp" data-source="post: 7109955" data-attributes="member: 12731"><p>Le sigh. This fallacy again. </p><p></p><p><rest of rant not directed at anyone in particular></p><p></p><p>You're effectively assuming a campaign will have the same distribution as a campaign where each and every monster appears once, and that's just not true.</p><p></p><p>I acknowledge the temptation, but this really does not end up anywhere near the numbers you need to draw the conclusions you do.</p><p></p><p>Heck, I could whip up a campaign where Intelligence is, by far, the most resisted stat, and you would not be able to say there was anything wrong with that campaign whatsoever.</p><p></p><p>There simply is no correlation between the fact that X percent of Monster Manual monsters are good at Int saves, and the fact that Y percent of Joe's campaign's monsters are good at Int saves.</p><p></p><p>None.</p><p></p><p>To pull that off, you need to assign each and every monster a weight rating - how common is that monster. For instance, a Goblin is surely a much more commonly encountered monster than an Aboleth. So in a hypothetical two-monster Manual you can't just count Goblin once and Aboleth once and then claim Int saves count for 50% of monsters and Dex saves 50%, so Fireball and Feeblemind are bad spells to bring. </p><p></p><p>Sure we could then fight over those ratings, but you would at least have something resembling real statistics.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CapnZapp, post: 7109955, member: 12731"] Le sigh. This fallacy again. <rest of rant not directed at anyone in particular> You're effectively assuming a campaign will have the same distribution as a campaign where each and every monster appears once, and that's just not true. I acknowledge the temptation, but this really does not end up anywhere near the numbers you need to draw the conclusions you do. Heck, I could whip up a campaign where Intelligence is, by far, the most resisted stat, and you would not be able to say there was anything wrong with that campaign whatsoever. There simply is no correlation between the fact that X percent of Monster Manual monsters are good at Int saves, and the fact that Y percent of Joe's campaign's monsters are good at Int saves. None. To pull that off, you need to assign each and every monster a weight rating - how common is that monster. For instance, a Goblin is surely a much more commonly encountered monster than an Aboleth. So in a hypothetical two-monster Manual you can't just count Goblin once and Aboleth once and then claim Int saves count for 50% of monsters and Dex saves 50%, so Fireball and Feeblemind are bad spells to bring. Sure we could then fight over those ratings, but you would at least have something resembling real statistics. [/QUOTE]
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