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<blockquote data-quote="Canada_K" data-source="post: 352386" data-attributes="member: 3735">I'm also in the crowd that says the chance for both A and B is 50%.&nbsp; Here's my reasoning.To get the probability of two sequential events, you multiply the probability of each signular event.&nbsp; For example, what is the probability of rolling two 6s in a row on a six sided dice?probability = (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36How about, what is the probability of getting two heads in a row when flipping a coin?probability = (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/4Now what if I say I'm going to flip a coin twice, and I want to know what is the probability of getting one head and one tail (in whatever order).Probability = 1 * (1/2) = 1/2Why?&nbsp; Well the first toss doesn't really matter.&nbsp; All I really care about is that the second toss is different than the first.&nbsp; So whatever I get for the first toss is OK.Now what if I say I have just tossed a coin and it came up tails.&nbsp; What is the probability that the next toss will be heads?&nbsp; In this case, the first event has already happened, and all we care about is the second toss.Probability = 1/2This is the same as the question about the man with the picture of his son.&nbsp; He's already told us one child is a boy.&nbsp; That event has already occured.&nbsp; So the chance that his other child is a girl is 1/2.Take this to the extreme.&nbsp; Let's say I tell you I have 5 children and all of them are boys.&nbsp; What is the chance my next child will be a boy?&nbsp; It's 1/2 because all the previous children have no bearing on the next one.&nbsp; If instead I ask you, what are the chances of having six boys in a row, the answer is different.Probability = (1/2) * (1/2)* (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/64OK, so I went on for an excessively long time.&nbsp; You have to forgive me, math is my career and I finally got a chance to talk about something&nbsp; know.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Canada_K, post: 352386, member: 3735"] I'm also in the crowd that says the chance for both A and B is 50%. Here's my reasoning. To get the probability of two sequential events, you multiply the probability of each signular event. For example, what is the probability of rolling two 6s in a row on a six sided dice? probability = (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36 How about, what is the probability of getting two heads in a row when flipping a coin? probability = (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/4 Now what if I say I'm going to flip a coin twice, and I want to know what is the probability of getting one head and one tail (in whatever order). Probability = 1 * (1/2) = 1/2 Why? Well the first toss doesn't really matter. All I really care about is that the second toss is different than the first. So whatever I get for the first toss is OK. Now what if I say I have just tossed a coin and it came up tails. What is the probability that the next toss will be heads? In this case, the first event has already happened, and all we care about is the second toss. Probability = 1/2 This is the same as the question about the man with the picture of his son. He's already told us one child is a boy. That event has already occured. So the chance that his other child is a girl is 1/2. Take this to the extreme. Let's say I tell you I have 5 children and all of them are boys. What is the chance my next child will be a boy? It's 1/2 because all the previous children have no bearing on the next one. If instead I ask you, what are the chances of having six boys in a row, the answer is different. Probability = (1/2) * (1/2)* (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/64 OK, so I went on for an excessively long time. You have to forgive me, math is my career and I finally got a chance to talk about something know. [/QUOTE]

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