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Message: <blockquote data-quote="The Sigil" data-source="post: 352816" data-attributes="member: 2013">Since we STILL seem to be having trouble with the "pictures" game, let us do a little back story.There is a little island with four couples on it.Each couple has 2 children.One couple has 2 boys.  The husband's name is BoB.One couple has 2 girls.  The husband's name is GaG.One couple has a boy (older) and a girl.  The husband's name is BiG.One couple has a girl (older) and a boy.  The husband's name is GuB.One day BoB, GaG, BiG, and GuB are walking on the beach.They see a shipwreck and a woman washed ashore.She approaches one of them and they talk and find out that both have 2 children.The man pulls out a picture of a son that belongs to him.What have we learned?Only that the man that the shipwrecked woman is talking to is not GaG.  There is an equal probability that it is BoB, BiG, or GuB.---Or, to put it another way...25% of men with 2 children have MM25% have MF25% have FM25% have FFWhen the man produces the picture of his son, you only learn that he belongs to the first 75% of people... AND NOTHING MORE!  To put it another way, 75% of men with 2 children can produce one picture of a son (assuming he has pictures of all of his children with him).IF we assume that, as has been suggested, a man with 2 children who can produce a picture of his son has a 50-50 chance of the other child being a boy, what do we conclude?75% of men with 2 children can produce a picture of a son times 50% chance that his other child is a son implies that 37.5% of men with two children have two sons.  IF we assume that, as I have suggested, that a man with 2 children who can produce a picture of his son has a 1/3 chance of the other child being a boy, what does that get us?75% of men with 2 children can produce a picture of a son times 1/3 chance that the other child is a son implies that 25% of men with two children have two sons.Which conclusion (50% or 33%) is at odds with our original statement?   All things being equal, 25% of men with two children have two sons.  Therefore, it seems QUITE clear that an answer of "50% chance to have another son" is wrong and "33% chance to have another son" is right.Please LOOK at what your conclusion leads to.--The Sigil</blockquote>

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