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<blockquote data-quote="The Sigil" data-source="post: 352856" data-attributes="member: 2013">Yes.*sigh*&nbsp; I repeat...The King HAS chosen something.&nbsp; The probability of him being correct is set based on the information when he makes his choice - subsequent revelation of information does not give him a greater probability of being correct (unless sufficient information is revealed so as to make the probability of all other solutions zero).No.&nbsp; Not okay.&nbsp; The remaining two dispositions do NOT have the same probability.&nbsp; Why not?If Possibility B is true, means that the King chose poison, thus the wizard has a 100% chance of throwing out potion 3.&nbsp; IOW, we have a 100% chance of arriving at the point of &quot;King has potion 1, potion 3 is discarded&quot; if Possibility B is the correct answer.Possibility C means that the King chose elixir, BUT the wizard had only a 50% chance of throwing out potion 3 (he had a 50% chance of throwing out potion 2).&nbsp; Thus, we have only a 50% chance of arriving at the point of &quot;King has potion 1, potion 3 is thrown out&quot; if Possibility C is the correct answer.IOW, possibility C (where the king is correct) is only 50% as likely as possibility B.&nbsp; Hence, we have the 2:1 ratio.Wrong, for the reasons shown above.Or if you prefer, think of it in reverse...&quot;I'm the court wizard.&nbsp; I make three potions for the king - one of which grants immortality and the other two of which are poison.&quot;1/3 of the time, the King guesses right - and I get to pick one poison potion to dump and try to trick him into choosing the other one.2/3 of the time, the King guesses wrong.&nbsp; I am forced to dump the other poison vial and offer the King the chance to switch to the &quot;right&quot; one.--The Sigil</blockquote>

[QUOTE="The Sigil, post: 352856, member: 2013"] Yes. *sigh* I repeat... The King HAS chosen something. The probability of him being correct is set based on the information when he makes his choice - subsequent revelation of information does not give him a greater probability of being correct (unless sufficient information is revealed so as to make the probability of all other solutions zero). No. Not okay. The remaining two dispositions do NOT have the same probability. Why not? If Possibility B is true, means that the King chose poison, thus the wizard has a 100% chance of throwing out potion 3. IOW, we have a 100% chance of arriving at the point of "King has potion 1, potion 3 is discarded" if Possibility B is the correct answer. Possibility C means that the King chose elixir, BUT the wizard had only a 50% chance of throwing out potion 3 (he had a 50% chance of throwing out potion 2). Thus, we have only a 50% chance of arriving at the point of "King has potion 1, potion 3 is thrown out" if Possibility C is the correct answer. IOW, possibility C (where the king is correct) is only 50% as likely as possibility B. Hence, we have the 2:1 ratio. Wrong, for the reasons shown above. Or if you prefer, think of it in reverse... "I'm the court wizard. I make three potions for the king - one of which grants immortality and the other two of which are poison." 1/3 of the time, the King guesses right - and I get to pick one poison potion to dump and try to trick him into choosing the other one. 2/3 of the time, the King guesses wrong. I am forced to dump the other poison vial and offer the King the chance to switch to the "right" one. --The Sigil [/QUOTE]

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