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<blockquote data-quote="The Sigil" data-source="post: 352920" data-attributes="member: 2013">Because the announcer DOES have a discernable pattern in choosing doors.*Rolls eyes*If it helps, think of it this way... when you choose Door A, you separate the probability into A and &quot;Not A&quot;.&nbsp; Door A has a 33% chance of being right.&nbsp; &quot;Not A&quot; has a 67% chance of being right.&nbsp; Even when you later open Door C, &quot;Not A&quot; STILL has a 67% chance of being right because you have not eliminated &quot;Not A&quot; from consideration.For the last time, you have a 1:3 chance of being right when you make your initial pick.&nbsp; THIS DOES NOT BLEEPING CHANGE WHEN ONE OF THE OTHER TWO DOORS IS OPENED!!!Play the following game and DON'T disagree with 67/33% until you've actually tried it!Go get two six-sided dice of different colors.&nbsp; Let us say &quot;red&quot; and &quot;blue&quot; for sake of argument here.&nbsp; Cut die rolls in half, rounding up, to get a range of 1-3 on each die.Roll both dice.&nbsp; The &quot;red&quot; die indicates the door the prize is behind (1-3).&nbsp; The &quot;blue&quot; die indicates the door person P picks.Now, eliminate one of the wrong answers.&nbsp; Mark how often &quot;staying&quot; gets you right and how often &quot;switching&quot; makes you right.For example, I roll 2, 1.&nbsp; That means the right answer is &quot;2&quot; and I picked &quot;1&quot;.&nbsp; I now eliminate #3.&nbsp; That means if I stay, I'm wrong.&nbsp; If I switch I'm right.&nbsp; One tally for &quot;switching.&quot;&nbsp; And so on...Do this 120 times.Come back when you notice the result is MUCH closer to 80/40 than it is to 60/60.--The Sigil</blockquote>

[QUOTE="The Sigil, post: 352920, member: 2013"] Because the announcer DOES have a discernable pattern in choosing doors. *Rolls eyes* If it helps, think of it this way... when you choose Door A, you separate the probability into A and "Not A". Door A has a 33% chance of being right. "Not A" has a 67% chance of being right. Even when you later open Door C, "Not A" STILL has a 67% chance of being right because you have not eliminated "Not A" from consideration. For the last time, you have a 1:3 chance of being right when you make your initial pick. THIS DOES NOT BLEEPING CHANGE WHEN ONE OF THE OTHER TWO DOORS IS OPENED!!! Play the following game and DON'T disagree with 67/33% until you've actually tried it! Go get two six-sided dice of different colors. Let us say "red" and "blue" for sake of argument here. Cut die rolls in half, rounding up, to get a range of 1-3 on each die. Roll both dice. The "red" die indicates the door the prize is behind (1-3). The "blue" die indicates the door person P picks. Now, eliminate one of the wrong answers. Mark how often "staying" gets you right and how often "switching" makes you right. For example, I roll 2, 1. That means the right answer is "2" and I picked "1". I now eliminate #3. That means if I stay, I'm wrong. If I switch I'm right. One tally for "switching." And so on... Do this 120 times. Come back when you notice the result is MUCH closer to 80/40 than it is to 60/60. --The Sigil [/QUOTE]

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