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<blockquote data-quote="2WS-Steve" data-source="post: 352986" data-attributes="member: 3289">Alright, since using Bayes’ Theorem (a theorem entailed by the probability axioms and used by economists, game theorists, decision theorists, mathematicians, and statisticians…) wasn’t convincing try the following:You walk along the beach and meet eight men; each man has two children and shows you a picture of one of those children chosen at random. The table attached below shows the probability space.<img src="http://www.Second-World-Simulations.com/ExtImages/ProbTable.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" /> Every time you see a photo of a male child you guess that the other kid is also male. How many times did you guess and how many of those guesses were correct?The mistake you’re making here Sigil is that you’re eliminating possibilities 7 and 8 but not eliminating possibilities 2 and 5.Note also that it doesn’t matter whether or not you specify that it’s the older kid.&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;On the other hand, Sigil’s interpretation of the potion puzzle is spot on. Do a Google search for probability puzzles Monty Hall problem, and you’ll see a variety of sites with the solution.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="2WS-Steve, post: 352986, member: 3289"] Alright, since using Bayes’ Theorem (a theorem entailed by the probability axioms and used by economists, game theorists, decision theorists, mathematicians, and statisticians…) wasn’t convincing try the following: You walk along the beach and meet eight men; each man has two children and shows you a picture of one of those children chosen at random. The table attached below shows the probability space. [IMG]http://www.Second-World-Simulations.com/ExtImages/ProbTable.jpg[/IMG] Every time you see a photo of a male child you guess that the other kid is also male. How many times did you guess and how many of those guesses were correct? The mistake you’re making here Sigil is that you’re eliminating possibilities 7 and 8 but not eliminating possibilities 2 and 5. Note also that it doesn’t matter whether or not you specify that it’s the older kid. >>>>>>>>> On the other hand, Sigil’s interpretation of the potion puzzle is spot on. Do a Google search for probability puzzles Monty Hall problem, and you’ll see a variety of sites with the solution. [/QUOTE]

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