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<blockquote data-quote="orsal" data-source="post: 2487502" data-attributes="member: 16016">No, that's not assumed. If your threat range is 19-20, it means that 10% of attacks are threats... but also that 10% of hits are criticals. Since all these calculations are based on what happens after it's been determined that you hit, this is the correct probability to use.&nbsp;Look at it this way: let's change the procedure a little. Suppose you're using a weapon with a 19-20 threat range, and against your current opponent you hit on 15 or higher. Instead of taking 19-20 as a threat and 15-20 on the subsequent roll as confirming, we'll take 15-20 as a threat and 19-20 to confirm it. The probability of a critical is exactly the same -- it's just as likely to roll 19+ followed by 15+ as vice versa. But using this procedure all hits are considered threats, and exactly 10% of them get confirmed.&nbsp;(There is one slight complication: if the number you need to hit is higher than the number you need to threaten a critical, use the higher number for both rolls.)</blockquote>

[QUOTE="orsal, post: 2487502, member: 16016"] No, that's not assumed. If your threat range is 19-20, it means that 10% of attacks are threats... but also that 10% of [b]hits[/b] are criticals. Since all these calculations are based on what happens after it's been determined that you hit, this is the correct probability to use. Look at it this way: let's change the procedure a little. Suppose you're using a weapon with a 19-20 threat range, and against your current opponent you hit on 15 or higher. Instead of taking 19-20 as a threat and 15-20 on the subsequent roll as confirming, we'll take 15-20 as a threat and 19-20 to confirm it. The probability of a critical is exactly the same -- it's just as likely to roll 19+ followed by 15+ as vice versa. But using this procedure all hits are considered threats, and exactly 10% of them get confirmed. (There is one slight complication: if the number you need to hit is higher than the number you need to threaten a critical, use the higher number for both rolls.) [/QUOTE]

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