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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Matthan" data-source="post: 3849509" data-attributes="member: 20005">I think some of the doom and gloom is just people who want Paizo to support the game they want to play right now (4E).  It's the mentality that says the more people that agree with my choices, the better my choices are.  There's nothing wrong with that.  To steal an example from someone else, the idea is that I love peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, yet somehow knowing you are eating them too, makes my sandwich more delicious.  A little silly, sure, but it happens to all of us on some points.For the rest of the doom and gloom, I think it's an attempt at an honest appraisal of the information that they have (ie. we don't know the numbers that Paizo is selling or their market research, or the same for WotC).  Out of the information, I think there are a few things that are playing into the doom and gloom mindset if Paizo stays 3.5.1. Paizo has built its name on supporting D&D.  If past history is any indication, when 4E comes the majority of the playerbase will migrate to the new edition.  In the majority of the playerbase's eyes, 3.5 will no longer be "real" D&D.  For examples of this, ask around at how hard it can be to find players for a first or second edition game.  It's possible and it happens, but it is by no means the norm.  So if Paizo doesn't move to 4E, they are not maintaining the image of supporting D&D to most of the playerbase.  Now, if 4E flops, maybe Paizo would be well positioned, but planning your market strategy around the market leader, who has a proven track record of converting the player base, producing a flop seems on the surface to be a poor business decision.  While we don't have any numbers, the fact that Paizo has stated that they want to support 4E seems to bear this idea out.2. Paizo is in a position where it is hard to diversify.  The other D20 publishers (Green Ronin especially) that have managed to diversify their product lines did not release their games at the same time as a new edition of D&D.  They introduced those products after the initial push for the new edition.  They also made sure that these new games did not operate in the same niche as D&D.  By doing so, they were able to build an audience who was looking for a new game.  By past history, we can predict that when 4E hits, the majority of people looking for a new game will be investing in it.  A 3.75 no matter how good it is, will not appeal to the majority of the playerbase.  It will be seen as an inferior D&D clone (whether inferior or not).   For an example of this mindset, look at 3.0 and 3.5.  Both games work and are fun.  The way 3.5 was positioned and accepted made 3.0 obsolete.  No one makes products to support it and the majority of players don't play it.  It's reasonable to assume that the same mindset would affect any company trying to stay in the 3.5 marketplace in a post 4E world.  3. Paizo's main product, Pathfinder, makes course correction difficult.  Pathfinder to my understanding is on 6 month cycles.  A product a month for six months and then the Adventure Path resets and new people can jump in (or jump off, but that's the nature of periodical products).  If Paizo were to stay with 3.5 or 3.75, and it hurt their business, they would be in the regrettable position of having to weather half a year with diminished profits (or possibly losses).  That could be enough to sink a business.  Their product line has a six month commitment.  If they found out that their first product for 3.5 after 4E, sold miserably they are stuck with six months of poor performance (though I do believe that if this actually happened, you would see them scramble to try and save themselves, probably by doing something with dual statting.  That is pure speculation though.)On the other side, if 4E flops they could have a massive success, but as above, it is hard to place your livelihood and those of all the people who work for you on the chance that the market leader will suddenly fail where he has never failed before.  That's my perspective on it at least.  I've been honest in that I want Paizo to convert over and support 4E.  Even with my admitted bias, I think that it is an honest and reasonable concern to predict "doom and gloom" if Paizo attempts to go its own way by supporting 3.5.</blockquote>

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