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<blockquote data-quote="BryonD" data-source="post: 4115079" data-attributes="member: 957">I bet you are wrong.Step back and look at the big picture.&nbsp; 18 months ago Paizo was doing quite well on a fraction of WotC's sales.&nbsp; No one else is ever going to get close to WotC's sales under any scenario.&nbsp; Now 4e is coming.&nbsp; And you are certainly correct, most (&gt;50%) players will switch.&nbsp; But it is very clear that WotC has alienated a meaningful fraction of the current fan base. (Dungeon/Dragon cancellation, on-line content, rules preference, to soon to change, etc...)&nbsp; So if Pazio goes to 4E, they will still have a fraction of WotC's sales.&nbsp; But it will be a fraction of a smaller pie.&nbsp; And I think the fraction would be smaller also.&nbsp; Between whatever tighter reigns the GSL places on things and the simple is better movement, I think 4e fans as a group will be less inclined to buy lots of add-ons and even further less inclined to buy non-&quot;official&quot; stuff.&nbsp; On the other hand, if they stay with 3.5 they have just positioned themselves as THE SOURCE for OGL D20ish gaming.&nbsp; They are king of their own little mountain.&nbsp; And as little as that mountain may be, it is probably bigger than the second tier sales for 4e.&nbsp; And their fan base will be a hell of a lot more loyal than WotC's.&nbsp; (Kinda a &quot;300&quot; of geeks&nbsp; <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile&nbsp; &nbsp; :)"&nbsp; data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" />&nbsp; )Could I be wrong?&nbsp;&nbsp; Hell yeah, I could be wrong.&nbsp; But I think there is a very reasonable chance I am right.&nbsp; And even if I am wrong, Paizo is in no danger of going down by the path you described.&nbsp; They will have their toe in the 4e water with Necromancer and they are not going to be blind to the world around them.&nbsp; The worst case scenario is that they get a short term major rush of sales from being the rally point for 3X.&nbsp; So in the next 12 months they almost certainly do better than they would as one of a list of 4e extras.&nbsp; When/if that run ends, they can still work their way into the 4e side of things.&nbsp; If that provides enough revenue to keep anyone afloat.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="BryonD, post: 4115079, member: 957"] I bet you are wrong. Step back and look at the big picture. 18 months ago Paizo was doing quite well on a fraction of WotC's sales. No one else is ever going to get close to WotC's sales under any scenario. Now 4e is coming. And you are certainly correct, most (>50%) players will switch. But it is very clear that WotC has alienated a meaningful fraction of the current fan base. (Dungeon/Dragon cancellation, on-line content, rules preference, to soon to change, etc...) So if Pazio goes to 4E, they will still have a fraction of WotC's sales. But it will be a fraction of a smaller pie. And I think the fraction would be smaller also. Between whatever tighter reigns the GSL places on things and the simple is better movement, I think 4e fans as a group will be less inclined to buy lots of add-ons and even further less inclined to buy non-"official" stuff. On the other hand, if they stay with 3.5 they have just positioned themselves as THE SOURCE for OGL D20ish gaming. They are king of their own little mountain. And as little as that mountain may be, it is probably bigger than the second tier sales for 4e. And their fan base will be a hell of a lot more loyal than WotC's. (Kinda a "300" of geeks :) ) Could I be wrong? Hell yeah, I could be wrong. But I think there is a very reasonable chance I am right. And even if I am wrong, Paizo is in no danger of going down by the path you described. They will have their toe in the 4e water with Necromancer and they are not going to be blind to the world around them. The worst case scenario is that they get a short term major rush of sales from being the rally point for 3X. So in the next 12 months they almost certainly do better than they would as one of a list of 4e extras. When/if that run ends, they can still work their way into the 4e side of things. If that provides enough revenue to keep anyone afloat. [/QUOTE]

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