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<blockquote data-quote="Gizzard" data-source="post: 913506" data-attributes="member: 527">If you do the calculations like that, then Jozan loses.&nbsp; But if you do probabilities like that every Heads coin is followed by a Tails coin.&nbsp; ;-)Its more accurate to use a hypergeometric and say &quot;Jozan hits for 1d8+3 30% of the time - how many rounds does it take for him to do 36 points&quot; and look at the breakdown.&nbsp; The breakdown isn't a hard number; its a spread.&nbsp; There is some (small) chance that Jozan will finish the fight in two rounds with two max criticals.&nbsp; There is a greater chance that he will finish it in 3 rounds with two non-max criticals.&nbsp; And so on, off to the point where he never does 36 points because he keeps missing. ;-)&nbsp; I could do some math, but I am already spending too much time of my workday thinking about the problem.&nbsp; In any case, the point is that there is a non-zero chance that Jozan will outfight the Paladin.&nbsp; Off the top of my head, I don't know what that non-zero number is.&nbsp; Other than that wand, they actually arent that differently matched.&nbsp; And, like I said, if the Cleric can take 25% of the stand-up fights (which I don't think he can) then he goes from losing overall to winning overall.-edit- clarified some probability stuff.&nbsp; hopefully.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Gizzard, post: 913506, member: 527"] If you do the calculations like that, then Jozan loses. But if you do probabilities like that every Heads coin is followed by a Tails coin. ;-) Its more accurate to use a hypergeometric and say "Jozan hits for 1d8+3 30% of the time - how many rounds does it take for him to do 36 points" and look at the breakdown. The breakdown isn't a hard number; its a spread. There is some (small) chance that Jozan will finish the fight in two rounds with two max criticals. There is a greater chance that he will finish it in 3 rounds with two non-max criticals. And so on, off to the point where he never does 36 points because he keeps missing. ;-) I could do some math, but I am already spending too much time of my workday thinking about the problem. In any case, the point is that there is a non-zero chance that Jozan will outfight the Paladin. Off the top of my head, I don't know what that non-zero number is. Other than that wand, they actually arent that differently matched. And, like I said, if the Cleric can take 25% of the stand-up fights (which I don't think he can) then he goes from losing overall to winning overall. -edit- clarified some probability stuff. hopefully. [/QUOTE]

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