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<blockquote data-quote="Cadfan" data-source="post: 3854892" data-attributes="member: 40961"><p>Last campaign was a war campaign. Enemy spellcasters were attached to enemy squads in bulk. They made up about 1 out of ever 12 hobgoblin soldiers.</p><p></p><p>This meant that about 4 to 8 spells were cast on the PCs <em>per day</em>. We'll call it 6 as an average.</p><p></p><p>Lets say I played the hobgoblins intelligently, instead of fun-but-really-stupid.</p><p></p><p>Casting against the PC with the lowest save versus the chosen spell would yield about a 50/50 chance of the PC failing the save, with the odds checked about 6 times per day.</p><p></p><p>.5^6=.015625</p><p>1-.015626</p><p></p><p>That's a 98.4375% chance that at least one PC would die on a given day.</p><p></p><p>So it might as well be "just die" in the long term.</p><p></p><p>Even if I made the hobgoblins a little dumber, and had them cast against targets with strong saves instead of the perfectly available targets with weak saves, things don't get much better. A strong save often has about a 70% chance of success. That yields an 88.2351% chance of at least one PC death per day.</p><p></p><p>If I reduced the hobgoblins selection of save-or-die to every other spell, it would just mean that those same odds would be invoked... every <em>two</em> days.</p><p></p><p>This is all worth keeping in mind when discussing saving throws, I think.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Cadfan, post: 3854892, member: 40961"] Last campaign was a war campaign. Enemy spellcasters were attached to enemy squads in bulk. They made up about 1 out of ever 12 hobgoblin soldiers. This meant that about 4 to 8 spells were cast on the PCs [I]per day[/I]. We'll call it 6 as an average. Lets say I played the hobgoblins intelligently, instead of fun-but-really-stupid. Casting against the PC with the lowest save versus the chosen spell would yield about a 50/50 chance of the PC failing the save, with the odds checked about 6 times per day. .5^6=.015625 1-.015626 That's a 98.4375% chance that at least one PC would die on a given day. So it might as well be "just die" in the long term. Even if I made the hobgoblins a little dumber, and had them cast against targets with strong saves instead of the perfectly available targets with weak saves, things don't get much better. A strong save often has about a 70% chance of success. That yields an 88.2351% chance of at least one PC death per day. If I reduced the hobgoblins selection of save-or-die to every other spell, it would just mean that those same odds would be invoked... every [I]two[/I] days. This is all worth keeping in mind when discussing saving throws, I think. [/QUOTE]
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