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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Elder-Basilisk" data-source="post: 3338499" data-attributes="member: 3146">In answer to the question about the figures, see the top of the post:Unfortunately, I redid the math and it's not entirely correct so you were right to ask me to show my workAgainst AC 20, Roy hits on an 11: 50% chance to hit. That's part 1. Part 2 is the damage. Roy will stagger the hobgoblin on a 6 (not considered in this analysis) and drop the hobgoblin on a 7 or better. So, that's a 50% chance to drop any uninjured hobgoblin he hits.So, with no Power Attack:50% chance to hitx 50% chance to drop= 25% chance to drop a hobgoblin with his first attack.*Over two rounds, that comes out to:Drops 2 hobgoblins: .25*.25Drops 1 hobgoblin and injures a 2nd: .25 (drop 1st)*.25 (injures 2nd)Drops 1 hobgoblin: .25 (drops 1st round)*.5 (miss 2nd round)+.5 (miss 1st round)*.25 (drops 2nd round)+.25 (injures 1st round)*.5(hits 2nd round--any hit being a kill)Injures 1 hobgoblin: .5 (miss 1st round)*.25 (injures 2nd round) +.5 (miss 2nd round)*.25 (injures 1st round)Accomplishes nothing: .5 (miss 1st round)*.5 (miss 2nd round)AnswersDrops 2 hobgoblins: 6.25%Drops 1 hobgoblins and injures a 2nd: 6.25%Drops 1 hobgoblin: 37.5%Injures 1 hobgoblin: 25%Accomplishes nothing: 25%Now the answers actually add up to 100%.On to the Power Attack for three answer which should have much simpler math:Power Attacking for 3, Roy is attacking at +6 for 1d12+13. He hits AC 20 on a 14 or better which is a 35% chance. Minimum damage is 14, so every hit drops a 13hp hobgoblin below 0.So:Drops two hobgoblins: .35 (drop round 1)*.35 (drops round 2)Drops 1 hobgoblin: .35 (drops round 1)*.65 (misses round 2)+.65 (misses round 1)*+35 (drops round 2)Accomplishes nothing: .65 (misses round 1)*.65 (misses round 2)answers:drops 2 hobgoblins: 12.25%Drops 1 hobgoblin: 45.5%Accomplishes nothing 42.25%So, the answers are a little less clean cut now, but by power attacking for 3, Roy still manages a 57.75% chance of dropping at least one hobgoblin with a 12.25% chance of dropping two included in the figure instead of a 50% chance of dropping at least one hobgoblin with a 6.25% chance of dropping two hobgoblins included in the figure.That's still a pretty strong shifting of the odds in Roy's favor.*You'll notice that these numbers exclude crits--really it should be a little more than that because if Roy crits the hobgoblin (2.5% chance=5% chance to roll a 20 and 50% chance to confirm) minimum damage will drop the hobgoblin.</blockquote>

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