Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="FrogReaver" data-source="post: 6818664" data-attributes="member: 6795602">1.&nbsp; Very wise to note that you will only apply the dice when you have failed the roll by a moderate margin.&nbsp; (In testing I've found the sweet spot to be missing by up to 4.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp; Very wise noticing that a characters chance to hit doesn't actually effect the calculations3.&nbsp; The 75% of the battle master superiority uses turn a miss into a hit is actually a very good estimation.&nbsp; However, getting that number involves realizing it's a dice and does have a chance to miss (unless you need a +1 in order to hit).&nbsp; That miss chance is what causes you to have about a 75%-85% chance of not landing one of the superiority dice precision attacks.While your base chance to hit doesn't impact the calculations, the number of attacks you expect to make per short rest does impact the calculations.&nbsp; More attacks means more chances for closer misses.&nbsp; This either has the effect of letting you use more superiority dice on precision attack per short rest (assuming you don't modify your usage rule) OR you modify it and that gives you a higher chance that upon using a superiority dice that a miss turns into a hit (because there are more misses by 1 and by 2 and by 3... when you increase the number of attacks).&nbsp; 4.&nbsp; Using a superiority dice on 40% of attacks that would have missed that you have a chance of turning into a hit would actually lower your success rate of turning a miss into a hit to:(8/8 + 7/8 + 6/8 + 5/8 + 4/8 + 3/8 + 2/8 + 1/8) / 8 = 56.25% chance to hit.&nbsp; 56.25% * 40% comes out to 22.5% as it should.5.&nbsp; To further lower that calculation from 22.5% you must realize that not every time an opportunity to use a superiority dice comes up for precision attack that you can use it.&nbsp; You only have 4 uses per short rest.&nbsp; You could have more than 4 opportunities to use it between short rests.&nbsp; Any short rest period where you have already used 4 precision attacks and need a 5th would have the effect of lowering that 22.5% even more.&nbsp; This will come up a non trivial amount of the time.75% is a good estimate if you only plan on using precision attack on more 20% of the attacks.&nbsp; 75% * 20% = 15%.&nbsp; The 56.25% is the estimate to use if you use it on 40% of attacks.Actually this discussion is helping me alot.&nbsp; Thank you.&nbsp; I think maybe soon I will be able to get the calculations to back up my simulation!</blockquote>

[QUOTE="FrogReaver, post: 6818664, member: 6795602"] 1. Very wise to note that you will only apply the dice when you have failed the roll by a moderate margin. (In testing I've found the sweet spot to be missing by up to 4. 2. Very wise noticing that a characters chance to hit doesn't actually effect the calculations 3. The 75% of the battle master superiority uses turn a miss into a hit is actually a very good estimation. However, getting that number involves realizing it's a dice and does have a chance to miss (unless you need a +1 in order to hit). That miss chance is what causes you to have about a 75%-85% chance of not landing one of the superiority dice precision attacks. While your base chance to hit doesn't impact the calculations, the number of attacks you expect to make per short rest does impact the calculations. More attacks means more chances for closer misses. This either has the effect of letting you use more superiority dice on precision attack per short rest (assuming you don't modify your usage rule) OR you modify it and that gives you a higher chance that upon using a superiority dice that a miss turns into a hit (because there are more misses by 1 and by 2 and by 3... when you increase the number of attacks). 4. Using a superiority dice on 40% of attacks that would have missed that you have a chance of turning into a hit would actually lower your success rate of turning a miss into a hit to: (8/8 + 7/8 + 6/8 + 5/8 + 4/8 + 3/8 + 2/8 + 1/8) / 8 = 56.25% chance to hit. 56.25% * 40% comes out to 22.5% as it should. 5. To further lower that calculation from 22.5% you must realize that not every time an opportunity to use a superiority dice comes up for precision attack that you can use it. You only have 4 uses per short rest. You could have more than 4 opportunities to use it between short rests. Any short rest period where you have already used 4 precision attacks and need a 5th would have the effect of lowering that 22.5% even more. This will come up a non trivial amount of the time. 75% is a good estimate if you only plan on using precision attack on more 20% of the attacks. 75% * 20% = 15%. The 56.25% is the estimate to use if you use it on 40% of attacks. Actually this discussion is helping me alot. Thank you. I think maybe soon I will be able to get the calculations to back up my simulation! [/QUOTE]

Verification