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Presentation vs design... vs philosophy
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<blockquote data-quote="Lanefan" data-source="post: 7951325" data-attributes="member: 29398"><p>Apples and oranges.</p><p></p><p>The chance of a 1st-level fighter <strong>defeating</strong> a storm giant is extremely close to zero. But, the chance of that 1st level fighter <strong>hitting</strong> that giant on any one particular roll, while not great, are far enough away from zero to make the roll worthwhile.</p><p></p><p>It could; 85% is very neatly represented by 17 or less on a d20.</p><p></p><p>But what if the chance is 98%? That's not representable on a d20 yet is still most certainly not a guaranteed success...says he, who has had characters fail resurrection on odds like this more times than I care to think of. <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /></p><p></p><p>I long ago streamlined this by concatenating it all into a roll or two: the first to succeed against the rough overall odds of success (e.g. let's say 4% for the 80' slippery wall in your example), and a second to gauge roughly how far you'd got before failure if the first roll does not show success. The second roll is weighted toward failing early; as most often if you're gonna blow it, or realize you're not gonna make it, it'll happen shortly after leaving the ground.</p><p></p><p>To me, forcing open a door* comes under the same category as picking a lock; your roll represents your best shot at it and you don't get another until-unless something materially changes. In the door example this material change might be as simple as getting a second party member to help you.</p><p></p><p>* - actually, this is much more akin to bend bars-lift gates, which are specifically called out by example as only getting one roll (or only one roll for each if trying to get through a barred gate) without material change.</p><p></p><p>As for listening at a door, the material change here that allows another attempt is simply the passage of time; the PCs have no way of knowing whether something has materially changed beyond the door that might produce a different result than before.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Lanefan, post: 7951325, member: 29398"] Apples and oranges. The chance of a 1st-level fighter [B]defeating[/B] a storm giant is extremely close to zero. But, the chance of that 1st level fighter [B]hitting[/B] that giant on any one particular roll, while not great, are far enough away from zero to make the roll worthwhile. It could; 85% is very neatly represented by 17 or less on a d20. But what if the chance is 98%? That's not representable on a d20 yet is still most certainly not a guaranteed success...says he, who has had characters fail resurrection on odds like this more times than I care to think of. :) I long ago streamlined this by concatenating it all into a roll or two: the first to succeed against the rough overall odds of success (e.g. let's say 4% for the 80' slippery wall in your example), and a second to gauge roughly how far you'd got before failure if the first roll does not show success. The second roll is weighted toward failing early; as most often if you're gonna blow it, or realize you're not gonna make it, it'll happen shortly after leaving the ground. To me, forcing open a door* comes under the same category as picking a lock; your roll represents your best shot at it and you don't get another until-unless something materially changes. In the door example this material change might be as simple as getting a second party member to help you. * - actually, this is much more akin to bend bars-lift gates, which are specifically called out by example as only getting one roll (or only one roll for each if trying to get through a barred gate) without material change. As for listening at a door, the material change here that allows another attempt is simply the passage of time; the PCs have no way of knowing whether something has materially changed beyond the door that might produce a different result than before. [/QUOTE]
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