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Preview: Brutal Ability
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<blockquote data-quote="Keenath" data-source="post: 4428826" data-attributes="member: 59792"><p>Incorrect. It is exactly the same power. Try it yourself. Roll 1d12 100 times, rerolling the 1 and 2, and then roll 1d10 100 times and add 2 to all the results. They'll be the same. You can choose not to believe me, but fortunately mathematics doesn't depend on your belief to operate.</p><p></p><p></p><p>NO! God! No! 1d10+2 has NO BIAS towards ANY damage rolls! It has an equal chance of providing a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12!</p><p></p><p>Now try it with a d12. You reroll all your 1s and 2s. There's a 1/6 chance of a reroll, plus a 1/12 chance each of a 3-12.</p><p></p><p>So, you have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll. When you make that reroll, what do you have?</p><p>You have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll. When you reroll what do you have?</p><p>You have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll.</p><p></p><p>Do you see where we're going with this? No matter how many rerolls you make, you ALWAYS have an equal chance of a 3-12, and that's the DEFINITION of d10+2.</p><p></p><p>No. Each reroll has an equal chance of any value, just like the original d10 roll.</p><p></p><p>Remember, each die roll is totally independent. The die doesn't remember what it rolled last time. (Believing this to be untrue is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.) Each time you reroll, it's the same as the very first roll, and your chances of any value are exactly the same as always.</p><p></p><p>Yes, and then you add TWO to it! You never really roll a 1 on d10+2, you can only roll a 3 at the very lowest.</p><p></p><p>And they're completely different from what we're talking about here because those abilities don't allow you to continue to reroll when you get low values.</p><p></p><p>And I never said "rerolls don't affect the damage". They DO affect the damage. They effect it exactly as much as an average +1. I mean, geez.</p><p></p><p>That is also true.</p><p></p><p>Interestingly, it doesn't change anything. They're still the same thing.</p><p></p><p>You have to keep in mind that the d10 has a narrower array of values. The chance of getting any given value is slightly better on a d10. A d10 gives you more 10s than a d12 gives you 12s. Thus you get more 12s on a d10+2 than a standard d12. The rerolls just fill out those extra probabilities.</p><p></p><p>Okay, look at it this way:</p><p>On a d10+2, I have a 10% chance of a 12.</p><p>On a d12 brutal 2, I have an 8.33% chance of a 12. But I also have a 16.66% chance of a reroll. And on that reroll, I still have an 8.33% chance of a 12, and a 16.66% chance of a second reroll.</p><p></p><p>Thus, the total chance of a 12 is the chance of a 12 on the first roll, plus the combined chance of getting to reroll AND getting a 12 on that reroll, plus the combined chance of getting a third roll AND getting a 12 on that third roll, etc. This is called a limit series, because it goes on infinitely, with each iteration getting less and less likely to come about. I'll just add up the first four iterations:</p><p></p><p> 8.33% + (16.66% * 8.33%) + (16.66%^2 * 8.33%) + (16.66%^3 * 8.33%)</p><p>= 9.9875%</p><p></p><p>That's only off 10% by about 1 hundreth of a percent, or 1 roll in ten thousand, and it's only off by that much because I didn't take it out to an infinite number of iterations. If you keep doing that, the sum will eventually add up to 9.99999~%, which is actually 10% due to the weirdness of limit mathematics.</p><p></p><p>That doesn't matter. The analysis tells me how the die acts on every roll. It tells me that every single time, I generate a flat probability curve between 3 and 12. I can easily see that a 1d10+2 does exactly the same thing, so what difference does it make how many rolls I make or how many times I make them?</p><p></p><p>Over a few thousand rolls or over a single roll.</p><p></p><p>What you're describing here would be the reason that, say, 3d4 isn't the same as 1d10+2. Over many rolls, they average out the same way, but 3d4 is more likely to hit in the middle of that range while d10+2 is a flat distribution.</p><p></p><p>But that's not the situation here. Because you throw out the old roll and roll anew with each 1 or 2, the average doesn't get altered by that 1 or 2.</p><p></p><p>Your certainty is misplaced. It's just +1 better than a normal greataxe, and equivalent to all other superior weapons. Well, for a given value of "equivalent" -- I'm not convinced that, for example, a shortsword and a longsword are balanced against each other, but a longsword and a bastard sword certainly have the same benefit as a greataxe versus an execution axe.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Keenath, post: 4428826, member: 59792"] Incorrect. It is exactly the same power. Try it yourself. Roll 1d12 100 times, rerolling the 1 and 2, and then roll 1d10 100 times and add 2 to all the results. They'll be the same. You can choose not to believe me, but fortunately mathematics doesn't depend on your belief to operate. NO! God! No! 1d10+2 has NO BIAS towards ANY damage rolls! It has an equal chance of providing a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12! Now try it with a d12. You reroll all your 1s and 2s. There's a 1/6 chance of a reroll, plus a 1/12 chance each of a 3-12. So, you have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll. When you make that reroll, what do you have? You have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll. When you reroll what do you have? You have an equal chance of a 3-12, and sometimes you reroll. Do you see where we're going with this? No matter how many rerolls you make, you ALWAYS have an equal chance of a 3-12, and that's the DEFINITION of d10+2. No. Each reroll has an equal chance of any value, just like the original d10 roll. Remember, each die roll is totally independent. The die doesn't remember what it rolled last time. (Believing this to be untrue is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.) Each time you reroll, it's the same as the very first roll, and your chances of any value are exactly the same as always. Yes, and then you add TWO to it! You never really roll a 1 on d10+2, you can only roll a 3 at the very lowest. And they're completely different from what we're talking about here because those abilities don't allow you to continue to reroll when you get low values. And I never said "rerolls don't affect the damage". They DO affect the damage. They effect it exactly as much as an average +1. I mean, geez. That is also true. Interestingly, it doesn't change anything. They're still the same thing. You have to keep in mind that the d10 has a narrower array of values. The chance of getting any given value is slightly better on a d10. A d10 gives you more 10s than a d12 gives you 12s. Thus you get more 12s on a d10+2 than a standard d12. The rerolls just fill out those extra probabilities. Okay, look at it this way: On a d10+2, I have a 10% chance of a 12. On a d12 brutal 2, I have an 8.33% chance of a 12. But I also have a 16.66% chance of a reroll. And on that reroll, I still have an 8.33% chance of a 12, and a 16.66% chance of a second reroll. Thus, the total chance of a 12 is the chance of a 12 on the first roll, plus the combined chance of getting to reroll AND getting a 12 on that reroll, plus the combined chance of getting a third roll AND getting a 12 on that third roll, etc. This is called a limit series, because it goes on infinitely, with each iteration getting less and less likely to come about. I'll just add up the first four iterations: 8.33% + (16.66% * 8.33%) + (16.66%^2 * 8.33%) + (16.66%^3 * 8.33%) = 9.9875% That's only off 10% by about 1 hundreth of a percent, or 1 roll in ten thousand, and it's only off by that much because I didn't take it out to an infinite number of iterations. If you keep doing that, the sum will eventually add up to 9.99999~%, which is actually 10% due to the weirdness of limit mathematics. That doesn't matter. The analysis tells me how the die acts on every roll. It tells me that every single time, I generate a flat probability curve between 3 and 12. I can easily see that a 1d10+2 does exactly the same thing, so what difference does it make how many rolls I make or how many times I make them? Over a few thousand rolls or over a single roll. What you're describing here would be the reason that, say, 3d4 isn't the same as 1d10+2. Over many rolls, they average out the same way, but 3d4 is more likely to hit in the middle of that range while d10+2 is a flat distribution. But that's not the situation here. Because you throw out the old roll and roll anew with each 1 or 2, the average doesn't get altered by that 1 or 2. Your certainty is misplaced. It's just +1 better than a normal greataxe, and equivalent to all other superior weapons. Well, for a given value of "equivalent" -- I'm not convinced that, for example, a shortsword and a longsword are balanced against each other, but a longsword and a bastard sword certainly have the same benefit as a greataxe versus an execution axe. [/QUOTE]
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