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<blockquote data-quote="The Sigil" data-source="post: 1089577" data-attributes="member: 2013"><p>One word of caution here...</p><p></p><p>While there are far more products, consider that a great deal of that figure of 1828 comes from RPGNow.com adding all of the out-of-print TSR downloads.</p><p></p><p>What that means to me is that while the pie has grown 5 times and the product offering has grown 7 times, making the average "slice" smaller (5/7 the size), it's likely that the huge growth spike in product offering is a one-time blip - nobody else has a product catalogue of 500 or so items that are already scanned as PDFs. I would assume that some of the increase in sales is due to adding the TSR PDFs, but since they were available at the WotC online store and SVGames.com prior to their addition to RPGNow.com, I think their impact in terms of total sales was smaller than it might have been.</p><p></p><p>In other words, I think that things will rebound in the following year because I think the pie will probably continue to grow at the same rate, but because we won't have a massive "dump" of 500 PDFs again, I think that the slices will grow... the "dump" represents a small "dip" in terms of total portion of pie served over time. For example, if RPGNow.com adds another 1000 PDFs this year (my guess is that that's about the number of non-TSR PDFs that were added), and sales "only" double...</p><p></p><p>Last year there were approximately 300 products and the pie was X in size. Each product made on average X/300.</p><p></p><p>This year there were approximately 2000 products and the pie was 5X in size. Each product made on average 5X/2000 or X/400 - a smaller piece of the pie.</p><p></p><p>If next year we add another 1000 products (the current non-TSR pace) and the pie doubles in size we'll have 3000 products and a pie that is 10X in size. Each product makes on average 10X/3000 - or X/300 - the same as they made a year ago.</p><p></p><p>I intend to stick things out for a while and see what happens. My guess is that the "flood" of products will slow (simply because, as I mentioned, nobody has a huge back catalog to dump into the mix like WotC did) and that the pie will continue to grow as people become more aware of and accepting of PDFs (and as PDF quality increases) - so eventually the growth in revenue will outstrip the growth in total number of products.</p><p></p><p>--The Sigil</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="The Sigil, post: 1089577, member: 2013"] One word of caution here... While there are far more products, consider that a great deal of that figure of 1828 comes from RPGNow.com adding all of the out-of-print TSR downloads. What that means to me is that while the pie has grown 5 times and the product offering has grown 7 times, making the average "slice" smaller (5/7 the size), it's likely that the huge growth spike in product offering is a one-time blip - nobody else has a product catalogue of 500 or so items that are already scanned as PDFs. I would assume that some of the increase in sales is due to adding the TSR PDFs, but since they were available at the WotC online store and SVGames.com prior to their addition to RPGNow.com, I think their impact in terms of total sales was smaller than it might have been. In other words, I think that things will rebound in the following year because I think the pie will probably continue to grow at the same rate, but because we won't have a massive "dump" of 500 PDFs again, I think that the slices will grow... the "dump" represents a small "dip" in terms of total portion of pie served over time. For example, if RPGNow.com adds another 1000 PDFs this year (my guess is that that's about the number of non-TSR PDFs that were added), and sales "only" double... Last year there were approximately 300 products and the pie was X in size. Each product made on average X/300. This year there were approximately 2000 products and the pie was 5X in size. Each product made on average 5X/2000 or X/400 - a smaller piece of the pie. If next year we add another 1000 products (the current non-TSR pace) and the pie doubles in size we'll have 3000 products and a pie that is 10X in size. Each product makes on average 10X/3000 - or X/300 - the same as they made a year ago. I intend to stick things out for a while and see what happens. My guess is that the "flood" of products will slow (simply because, as I mentioned, nobody has a huge back catalog to dump into the mix like WotC did) and that the pie will continue to grow as people become more aware of and accepting of PDFs (and as PDF quality increases) - so eventually the growth in revenue will outstrip the growth in total number of products. --The Sigil [/QUOTE]
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