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<blockquote data-quote="Altamont Ravenard" data-source="post: 1577615" data-attributes="member: 14700">(lol, the last reply comes before the original post!!!)DanMcS, I'd still love to see the formula construction.Gnimish88:Basically, in probabilities, you have to check the number of times a particular event will occur, and divide by the total number of possibilities.In this case, let's say the event is &quot;Character B realizes that Character A is not being totally honest&quot;. In order for this event to occur, Character B has to roll a Sense Motive check that is equal or higher than the Bluff check (since the Bluff check sets the DC for the Sense Motive check).Since there is a difference of 4 in the skill modifiers (in favor of Character A), Character B will need a roll, on a d20, that is higher by at least 4.There are 400 possible d20 vs. d20 roll results. You have to count the number of times where the roll from Character B is at least 4 higher than Character A. In this case, Character A will Bluff Character B 66% of the time, and Character B will realize that Character A is lying to him 34% of the time.Alas, I can't remember how to construct a mathematical formula to reprocuce this. What I did is I made a little excel sheet detailling all the possibilities.(and now I can't attach the file... :\ Well doesn't matter since Dan's formula takes a lot less space than my excel file...)AR</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Altamont Ravenard, post: 1577615, member: 14700"] (lol, the last reply comes before the original post!!!) DanMcS, I'd still love to see the formula construction. Gnimish88: Basically, in probabilities, you have to check the number of times a particular event will occur, and divide by the total number of possibilities. In this case, let's say the event is "Character B realizes that Character A is not being totally honest". In order for this event to occur, Character B has to roll a Sense Motive check that is equal or higher than the Bluff check (since the Bluff check sets the DC for the Sense Motive check). Since there is a difference of 4 in the skill modifiers (in favor of Character A), Character B will need a roll, on a d20, that is higher by at least 4. There are 400 possible d20 vs. d20 roll results. You have to count the number of times where the roll from Character B is at least 4 higher than Character A. In this case, Character A will Bluff Character B 66% of the time, and Character B will realize that Character A is lying to him 34% of the time. Alas, I can't remember how to construct a mathematical formula to reprocuce this. What I did is I made a little excel sheet detailling all the possibilities. (and now I can't attach the file... :\ Well doesn't matter since Dan's formula takes a lot less space than my excel file...) AR [/QUOTE]

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