Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Radiating Gnome" data-source="post: 5919905" data-attributes="member: 150">Someone much better with probability will do better than me, but a few years back looking at avengers I did some poking around with the double roll mechanic.&nbsp; The trick is to understand that this takes a flat probability and turns it into a bell curve of sorts -- so the probability improvement&nbsp; depends upon the number you need to roll.&nbsp; So, if you need an 11 or better to succeed, for example, you succeed on one die 50% of the time.&nbsp; And of the 50% of the time you fail, a second die would succeed, so your chance of success becomes 75%.&nbsp; If, on the other hand, you need a 16 or better, you succeed 25% of the time on the first die, and of the 75% of the time you fail, you succeed 25% of the time on the other die, so with two rolls your chance of success is 31.25% -- so a little better than 25% with one die, but it's not as big a difference as in the easier tests.&nbsp; This sort of advantage mechanic does a whole lot more to protect against bad rolls when the odds of success are high than it does to improve the chances of a high roll when the odds of success are low. But, that's what you get when you trust a guy with a few degrees in english to talk probability. I'm probably dead wrong. -rg</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Radiating Gnome, post: 5919905, member: 150"] Someone much better with probability will do better than me, but a few years back looking at avengers I did some poking around with the double roll mechanic. The trick is to understand that this takes a flat probability and turns it into a bell curve of sorts -- so the probability improvement depends upon the number you need to roll. So, if you need an 11 or better to succeed, for example, you succeed on one die 50% of the time. And of the 50% of the time you fail, a second die would succeed, so your chance of success becomes 75%. If, on the other hand, you need a 16 or better, you succeed 25% of the time on the first die, and of the 75% of the time you fail, you succeed 25% of the time on the other die, so with two rolls your chance of success is 31.25% -- so a little better than 25% with one die, but it's not as big a difference as in the easier tests. This sort of advantage mechanic does a whole lot more to protect against bad rolls when the odds of success are high than it does to improve the chances of a high roll when the odds of success are low. But, that's what you get when you trust a guy with a few degrees in english to talk probability. I'm probably dead wrong. -rg [/QUOTE]

Verification