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Probability vs. Point Buy
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<blockquote data-quote="stephenh" data-source="post: 1754743" data-attributes="member: 8620"><p>I'm not going to get into which method of stat generation is best, but here is a break down of some of the Stat rolling methods I have seen discussed on there boards.</p><p></p><p>First some quick notes on the method. </p><p></p><p>1) All scores are calculated after applying the minimum viable character cut. This is defined (as per PHB or DMG - not sure which off the top of my head) as: a) must have at least 1 stat above 13 and b) total stat modifiers must add up to +1 or more.</p><p></p><p>2) Randomly rolled stats of 8 or less are assigned 0 points.</p><p></p><p>3) For all methods I generate a million random characters (actually a million and 1) and generate the statistics below based on this sample. This does not represent a complete sample for any of the methods below (i.e. covering every possible combination), but a sample of this size will have very small and well behaved errors, which I have also given where appropriate. The advantage of this method is that it is very simple to do and it is trivial to add in different (and arbitrarily complex) stat generation methods.</p><p></p><p>4) For each method I calculate:</p><p> a) The mean (this is the average normally used) points obtained by that method (and error on the value I give). </p><p> b) The median. For those who don't know this is another sort of average, and in my opinion is a fairer representation of the average in this case. It is the value in which exactly half the values are larger than or equal to and half are less than or equal to. This will always be an exact integer in these tests. (I believe it is fairer because the points distributions are non linear). </p><p> c) I also give the 25th and 75th percentile of each method. Roughly speaking 1 in four randomly rolled characters will have a points value less than or equal to the 25th percentile and 1 in for will have a points value greater than or equal to the 75th percentile. i.e. in the "average" group of 4 characters, 1 will have a points value <= 25th percentile, 2 will have characters with points values between the 25th and 75th percentile, and one will have a character with a points value >=the 75th percentile.</p><p> d) Finally I give the average (mean) set of stats rolled using each of the given methods, in order from large to small. </p><p></p><p>I can add other methods if anyone wants them.</p><p></p><p>[code]</p><p>3d6</p><p>roll 3d6 and take the result.</p><p>mean = 24.685 +/- 0.005</p><p>median = 24</p><p>25th percentile 21</p><p>75th percentile 28</p><p>mean "stat array"</p><p> 15.482 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 13.668 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 12.292 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 11.007 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 9.589 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 7.668 (+/- 0.002)</p><p></p><p>4d6 drop low</p><p>roll 4d6 and drop the lowest</p><p>mean = 30.927 +/- 0.008</p><p>median = 30</p><p>25th percentile 25</p><p>75th percentile 36</p><p>mean "stat array"</p><p> 15.949 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 14.455 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 13.228 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 12.022 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 10.659 (+/- 0.002)</p><p> 8.720 (+/- 0.002)</p><p></p><p>4d6 drop low -- best of 7 rolls</p><p>roll 4d6 and drop the lowest -- do 7 times and keep the best 6</p><p>mean = 34.020 +/- 0.008</p><p>median = 33</p><p>25th percentile 28</p><p>75th percentile 39</p><p>mean "stat array"</p><p> 16.020 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 14.624 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 13.516 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 12.480 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 11.403 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 10.140 (+/- 0.002)</p><p></p><p>4d6 drop low -- reroll all 1s</p><p>roll 4d6 and drop the lowest, but also reroll all 1s rolled</p><p>mean = 37.724 +/- 0.008</p><p>median = 37</p><p>25th percentile 32</p><p>75th percentile 43</p><p>mean "stat array"</p><p> 16.310 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 15.077 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 14.061 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 13.064 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 11.937 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 10.341 (+/- 0.002)</p><p></p><p>5d6 drop 2 lowest</p><p>roll 5d6 and drop the 2 lowest</p><p>mean = 38.543 +/- 0.009</p><p>median = 38</p><p>25th percentile 32</p><p>75th percentile 44</p><p>mean "stat array"</p><p> 16.486 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 15.251 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 14.185 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 13.102 (+/- 0.001)</p><p> 11.836 (+/- 0.002)</p><p> 9.963 (+/- 0.002)</p><p>[/code]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="stephenh, post: 1754743, member: 8620"] I'm not going to get into which method of stat generation is best, but here is a break down of some of the Stat rolling methods I have seen discussed on there boards. First some quick notes on the method. 1) All scores are calculated after applying the minimum viable character cut. This is defined (as per PHB or DMG - not sure which off the top of my head) as: a) must have at least 1 stat above 13 and b) total stat modifiers must add up to +1 or more. 2) Randomly rolled stats of 8 or less are assigned 0 points. 3) For all methods I generate a million random characters (actually a million and 1) and generate the statistics below based on this sample. This does not represent a complete sample for any of the methods below (i.e. covering every possible combination), but a sample of this size will have very small and well behaved errors, which I have also given where appropriate. The advantage of this method is that it is very simple to do and it is trivial to add in different (and arbitrarily complex) stat generation methods. 4) For each method I calculate: a) The mean (this is the average normally used) points obtained by that method (and error on the value I give). b) The median. For those who don't know this is another sort of average, and in my opinion is a fairer representation of the average in this case. It is the value in which exactly half the values are larger than or equal to and half are less than or equal to. This will always be an exact integer in these tests. (I believe it is fairer because the points distributions are non linear). c) I also give the 25th and 75th percentile of each method. Roughly speaking 1 in four randomly rolled characters will have a points value less than or equal to the 25th percentile and 1 in for will have a points value greater than or equal to the 75th percentile. i.e. in the "average" group of 4 characters, 1 will have a points value <= 25th percentile, 2 will have characters with points values between the 25th and 75th percentile, and one will have a character with a points value >=the 75th percentile. d) Finally I give the average (mean) set of stats rolled using each of the given methods, in order from large to small. I can add other methods if anyone wants them. [code] 3d6 roll 3d6 and take the result. mean = 24.685 +/- 0.005 median = 24 25th percentile 21 75th percentile 28 mean "stat array" 15.482 (+/- 0.001) 13.668 (+/- 0.001) 12.292 (+/- 0.001) 11.007 (+/- 0.001) 9.589 (+/- 0.001) 7.668 (+/- 0.002) 4d6 drop low roll 4d6 and drop the lowest mean = 30.927 +/- 0.008 median = 30 25th percentile 25 75th percentile 36 mean "stat array" 15.949 (+/- 0.001) 14.455 (+/- 0.001) 13.228 (+/- 0.001) 12.022 (+/- 0.001) 10.659 (+/- 0.002) 8.720 (+/- 0.002) 4d6 drop low -- best of 7 rolls roll 4d6 and drop the lowest -- do 7 times and keep the best 6 mean = 34.020 +/- 0.008 median = 33 25th percentile 28 75th percentile 39 mean "stat array" 16.020 (+/- 0.001) 14.624 (+/- 0.001) 13.516 (+/- 0.001) 12.480 (+/- 0.001) 11.403 (+/- 0.001) 10.140 (+/- 0.002) 4d6 drop low -- reroll all 1s roll 4d6 and drop the lowest, but also reroll all 1s rolled mean = 37.724 +/- 0.008 median = 37 25th percentile 32 75th percentile 43 mean "stat array" 16.310 (+/- 0.001) 15.077 (+/- 0.001) 14.061 (+/- 0.001) 13.064 (+/- 0.001) 11.937 (+/- 0.001) 10.341 (+/- 0.002) 5d6 drop 2 lowest roll 5d6 and drop the 2 lowest mean = 38.543 +/- 0.009 median = 38 25th percentile 32 75th percentile 44 mean "stat array" 16.486 (+/- 0.001) 15.251 (+/- 0.001) 14.185 (+/- 0.001) 13.102 (+/- 0.001) 11.836 (+/- 0.002) 9.963 (+/- 0.002) [/code] [/QUOTE]
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