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<blockquote data-quote="Dr_Rictus" data-source="post: 319410" data-attributes="member: 850">Nah, the average damage given the miss chance is a poor statistic because it's the one situation you're basically sure doesn't apply.&nbsp; There aren't going to be enough events for it to average out.50% chance, the wizard ends up with a bunch of the fighter's hit points and can (sort of) stand up to his counterattack, 50% chance he doesn't and is killed by the fighter trivially.By the way, should the fighter be taking a miss chance for his blink, or is his vorpal sword also ghost touch or something?With 4 attacks each having a 20% chance to critical, the chance that at least one of them does so is actually about 59%.&nbsp; Which is more comfortable for the wizard, but still not exactly cozy.So, for the wizard to survive, he has to hit the fighter (50% chance) and not be decapitated by any of the counterattacks (41% chance).&nbsp; So there's about a 20% chance he even gets as far as his attempt to power word, kill the fighter.&nbsp; Which, I might point out, kind of counts on him (A) getting the fighter to below 100 hit points (likely, but not guaranteed just by the fact that average damage would do it), and (B) knowing that the fighter is at under 100 hit points, which is actually something he is obliged to guess about.&nbsp; He only has to roll a 28 or less on his 10d6 and the fighter is left with more than 100 hit points.&nbsp; This is actually a pretty good bet for the wizard (about 90%).So, offhand, it looks like the wizard's chance of succeeding with this strategy, given all of the independent factors that could go wrong, is in the neighborhood of 18%</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Dr_Rictus, post: 319410, member: 850"] Nah, the average damage given the miss chance is a poor statistic because it's the one situation you're basically sure [i]doesn't[/i] apply. There aren't going to be enough events for it to average out. 50% chance, the wizard ends up with a bunch of the fighter's hit points and can (sort of) stand up to his counterattack, 50% chance he doesn't and is killed by the fighter trivially. By the way, should the [i]fighter[/i] be taking a miss chance for his [i]blink[/i], or is his [i]vorpal sword[/i] also [i]ghost touch[/i] or something? With 4 attacks each having a 20% chance to critical, the chance that at least one of them does so is actually about 59%. Which is more comfortable for the wizard, but still not exactly cozy. So, for the wizard to survive, he has to hit the fighter (50% chance) and not be decapitated by any of the counterattacks (41% chance). So there's about a 20% chance he even gets as far as his attempt to [i]power word, kill[/i] the fighter. Which, I might point out, kind of counts on him (A) getting the fighter to below 100 hit points (likely, but not guaranteed just by the fact that average damage would do it), and (B) [i]knowing[/i] that the fighter is at under 100 hit points, which is actually something he is obliged to guess about. He only has to roll a 28 or less on his 10d6 and the fighter is left with more than 100 hit points. This is actually a pretty good bet for the wizard (about 90%). So, offhand, it looks like the wizard's chance of succeeding with this strategy, given all of the independent factors that could go wrong, is in the neighborhood of 18% [/QUOTE]

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