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Message: <blockquote data-quote="reanjr" data-source="post: 3066628" data-attributes="member: 20740">I have to agree Wii is going to outsell both competitors this holiday season, probably staying near sold-out throughout the season.  That will also give it alot of mindshare during Q1 2k7, and continue to boost its sales.  They will probably be able to maintain fairly steady sales throughout 2k7 as gamers who already bought a PS3 and/or 360 get enough money to purchase another system.  They will see sales boosts twice in 2k7 around the release dates of Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3.Sony is launching with so few units that MS won't even bother worrying about them until Q1-2 2k7 (Sony will likely still be shorthanded through Q1 due to the imminent worldwide release).  At that point, they will drop the price of the 360, not only undercutting some of Sony's market, but giving a significant boost to their sales throughout the year.Sometime in Q2-3 2k7, Sony will manage to drop the price.  Not significantly, but enough to be noticed and soon after units start being readily available.  Their sales will start taking off a bit after this, but won't match MS anytime during 2k7.Post 2k7 is a bit harder to guess at, but one of two things will happen on the PS3 front.  Scenario 1 is that Sony-exclusive software publishers are going to accept low sales (compared to what they are used to) for the next year as PS3 ownership takes time to ramp up. This will leave them a bit cash-dry for a while and will hurt Sony's overall exclusive library.  This will keep Sony fairly neck-and-neck with MS throughout the next few years, with one (likely Sony) pulling ahead near end-of-life.  The second scenario is that Sony's exclusive publishers will abandon that model and drive MS into a stable (but not overbearing) first place.Sony's strategy of poorly duplicating Nintendo's motion sensitivity may pan out well for them or might be very bad.  On the one hand, they are trying to ride Nintendo's coattails by getting publishers who would have made Wii-exclusive titles also available on PS3 (but more importantly, not 360).  This may dumb down the control scheme so that games can work on PS3's inferior controller and hurt Nintendo sales.  On the other hand, it may lead to publishers creating games that are significantly more fun to play on the Wii than the PS3, hurting their image a bit.  This might cause Nintendo to receive many extra sales over a few years and reinforce the popular idea that it is far more worth it to own a 360/Wii than a PS3 (and only $50 more expensive).If Sony somehow ramps up production sooner than expected, Blu-Ray might actually be a success, but given their current and (for the near future) estimated production, Blu-Ray will be yet another format failure in a long list of Sony format failures.  Perhaps they will learn from that and go back to being an electronics company rather than a format company, but it is doubtful.  It is my hope that HD-DVD falters as well, but more likely it will start a slow takeover of the DVD market, getting people to pay, yet again, for the same thing they already own.  The upshot is that by the time HD-DVD is dominant in physical media, physical media will barely be dominant, being subsumed by downloaded or streaming content.Care to comment/disagree?</blockquote>

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